Australia -- Queensland Weather Update

MELBOURNE - Feb 16/15 - SNS -- The current forecast for the state of Queensland was released by Australia's Bureau of Meteorology.

Weather Situation
A monsoon trough extends from the far north of the Gulf of Carpentaria into the northwestern Coral Sea and is expected to strengthen in the days ahead. Tropical lows may deepen on the monsoon trough during the week with an increasing chance of cyclone development mid to late week. A slow moving high pressure system near New Zealand will maintain a firm ridge over east coast waters to the south of the monsoon trough. A trough is expected to shift west over the southern Coral Sea during the next few days, possibly approaching the southern Queensland coast late in the week.
Forecast for the rest of MondayRain areas and thunderstorms over areas north of about Cooktown to Arukun, with some locally heavy falls likely. Showers and possible storms about the east tropical coast south of Cooktown. A slight to medium chance of showers near the central and southern coasts, developing over the southeastern interior during the day. A hot day in the southwest with a slight chance of showers and storms. Fine and sunny through the remaining west. Moderate to fresh southeast to northeasterly winds, tending strong and gusty east to southeasterly near the coast between about Lockhart River and Bowen. Fresh to strong westerly winds through Torres Strait and across the far north of Cape York Peninsula.Tuesday 17 FebruaryRain areas and some storms with some locally heavy falls are expected to continue north of about Cooktown to Arukun due to the monsoon trough extending through the area. The high near New Zealand will maintain a ridge over east coast districts to the south of the monsoon trough, with a slight to medium chance of showers expected in the onshore wind flow, increasing to a high chance about the north tropical coast. A weak upper trough should enter the southwest of the state generating some gusty showers or storms but with little or no rainfall expected. Fine and sunny conditions will persist through the remaining interior.Wednesday 18 FebruaryThere is considerable uncertainty regarding the development of the tropical system on the monsoon trough, but the potential for cyclone development is expected to increase in both the Gulf of Carpentaria and the Coral Sea. Forecasts are highly dependent on the development of any lows. At this stage further showers and some storms are likely over the tropics north of about Cooktown to Kowanyama. Instability should also increase through southern central districts and the Wide Bay as the trough over the southern Coral Sea tracks further west, with some showers and possible storms developing. A slight to medium chance of showers will persist about the remaining east coast, while some showers and storms will continue in the southwest of the state. A large easterly swell will extend towards Fraser Island and the southern Queensland coast.Thursday 19 FebruaryThe movement of tropical lows remains uncertain. At this stage the most likely scenario is for the trough over the southern Coral Sea to continue tracking west and approach the southern Queensland coast, producing showers, rain areas and possible storms east coast districts south of about Yeppoon. The trough will also likely result in dangerous surf conditions along Fraser Island and southern beaches. A medium to high chance of showers and storms is expected over the northern and eastern tropics and also the central coast, with a slight to medium chance extending into the central interior. Much of the west should remain fine apart from the chance of showers or storms persisting in the southwest.Friday until SundaySome uncertainty persists with the forecasts through the outlook period given uncertainty regarding the movement of any tropical systems and also the trough over the southern Coral Sea. The trough will most likely move into southeastern corner of the state on Friday, generating rain areas and isolated storms with possible locally heavy falls. It should then contract further south on Saturday though a chance of showers and storms will likely persist through the weekend. A medium to high chance of showers and storms will continue through the tropics and central districts, while the west should remain mostly fine.The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:30 pm EST Monday.Product IDQ10700
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This page was created at 07:15 on Monday 16 February 2015 (GMT)
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