Mixed Weather in Australia's June QuarterCANBERRA - Mar 17/04 - SNS -- The weather outlook for the second quarter of the 2004 calendar year will be mixed, believes Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (ABM)."A drier than average season is more likely in SA, much of Victoria, the far southwest of NSW and Tasmania, while a wetter than average season is more likely in southeast Queensland and the northeast quarter of NSW. This outlook pattern is a result of the combined effects of above average temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans," the department said.For the April to June period, the chances of above median rainfall are below 40% in a band extending from northwest SA across southwest NSW and Victoria (except East Gippsland) to Tasmania. The probabilities drop below 30% in central SA. This means that BELOW median falls have a 60 to 75% chance of occurring across this broad region. So with climate patterns like the current, about 7 seasons out of 10 are expected to be drier than average in these parts, with about 3 out of 10 being wetter.Conversely, the chances of above median falls are generally in the 60 to 65% range in the northeast quarter of NSW and southeast Queensland. So with climate patterns like the current, about 6 seasons out of 10 are expected to be wetter than average in these areas, with about 4 out of 10 being drier.Across WA, the NT and the remainder of Queensland, the chances of a wetter than average June quarter are mainly between 40 and 55%.Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal rainfall. During the June quarter, history shows this influence to be moderately consistent across most of the areas with the large probability shifts, as well as over much of central WA, parts of the northern NT and north Queensland.Both the Indian and tropical Pacific Oceans remain warmer than average.The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has shown strong month-to-month variations recently, in association with active and inactive phases of the northern Australian monsoon. February's value was +9 following the –12 in January and +10 in December. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 14th March was +4.