Historic Revisions Surprise Trade

VANCOUVER - Feb 8/09 - SNS -- Last week's stocks in all positions report for Canadian specialty crops contained a surprisingly large number of revisions to data for prior years, reflecting an effort by Statistics Canada to reconcile data from the last agricultural census with ongoing reports from growers and the trade about production and inventory levels.

Changing the past added to the significance of the report. On its own, the December 31 stocks in all positions estimates helped explain the bullish nature of lentil markets since the middle of January; while emphasizing the problems facing field pea markets during the balance of the 2008-09 marketing campaign and possibly into the coming marketing year.

For the other specialty crops covered -- sunflower, canary, mustard seed and chickpeas -- the stocks report contained no real surprises. The most interesting information was that inferred domestic usage was generally at the low end of the recent range for most crops, implying that the record high prices in effect through the summer of 2008 may have done what high prices are supposed to do -- cause buyers to reduce the amount they are using to conserve supplies.