Fourth Largest Soybean Crop Possible

WASHINGTON - Aug 12/08 - SNS -- Soybean production is forecast at 2.97 billion bushels, up 15% from last year but down 7% from the record high production of 2006, according to the USDA's latest crop production estimates.

If realized, this will be the fourth largest production on record. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 40.5 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushel from 2007. Compared with last year, yields are forecast lower in Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Ohio, Texas, and across the northern and central Great Plains. In contrast, yield prospects are forecast higher than last year or unchanged across the remainder of the country, with the largest increases in Kentucky and Tennessee, up 13 and 12 bushels from last year, respectively. Area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 73.3 million acres, up 2% from June and up 17% from 2007.

Area planted, at 74.8 million acres, is up less than 1% from June and up 18% from last year. Producers expect to harvest 73.3 million acres, up 2% from June and up 17% from 2007. Planted and harvested area, if realized, will both be the third largest on record.

As of August 3, 63% of the U.S. soybean crop was rated in good to excellent condition, 7 percentage points above the same week in 2007. Good to excellent ratings increased during July by more than 10 points in Illinois, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, the largest decline in condition ratings during the month occurred in Tennessee, where dry weather during July led to a decrease in the% rated good to excellent of 29 points. Yields are forecast below 2007 levels in Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Ohio, Texas, and across the northern and central Great Plains.