Seeding, Emergence Lag Last Year
WASHINGTON - May 13/02 - STAT -- The rate of seeding slowed for most crops during the past week, with the result only sugarbeets are showing a better rate of seeding progress than last year, according to the latest data compiled by the USDA.
The biggest difference in crop progress is being reported for soybeans. As of May 12, only 17% of this year's prospective crop has been planting, half the rate of progress by this time last year and well behind the 29% average seeding rate for the previous five years.
It is worth noting the soybean planting progress number is at the mid-point of trade expectations, whereas corn seeding progressed at a faster rate than expected. The USDA pegs it at 62% complete, versus trade guesses between 50% and 55%.
The situation is not expected to improve over the coming week, with the result markets now face a "genuine weather worry," says Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) floor broker Vic Lespinasse. More importantly, forecasts for unusually low temperatures will slow drying in fields, making it harder for growers to plant this year's crops and raising more worries about problems with disease.
Weather worries not only lifted CBOT corn; they supported soybeans, which rallied on active commodity fund buying; and wheat futures.
CBOT analysts said "The excessive, and apparently non-stopping rain, has prevented farmers from entering the fields aggressively at a time when planting should be moving swiftly. And forecasts for later this week are calling for more rainfall and cool temperatures - a combination that could keep farmers twiddling their thumbs for a little bit longer."
But gains were limited by the perception that fieldwork delays will benefit corn more than soybeans because farmers might be inclined to switch crops and plant soybeans where corn was originally planned, traders said.
Ryan Law of Central Soya, Inc was more blunt in his assessment. "Even though continual corn planting could turn into more bean acres, what beans are already planted won't survive if they are standing under water. So after Friday's daily reversal and what seemed to be technically negative, we didn't see any follow through today."
After hours wheat markets were also distressed by the reduction in crop condition for the U.S. winter wheat crop. Traders were expecting no change in the crop condition estimates.
As of Sunday, only 34% of the crop is rated good to excellent, down from 36% last week and 40% at this time last year. The percentage rated fair was unchanged at 31%, while the USDA boosted its estimate of crops rated poor by two points to 19% and left the percentage of winter wheat fields in very poor condition at 16%.
The Wheat Quality Council Delta tour of SRW wheat areas will be scouting fields Tuesday and Wednesday. Participants are expected to find high abandonment in Arkansas due to flooding and some diseases associated with overly wet conditions. However, about 20% of the Arkansas crop was also seeded in beds with improved drainage, which could lead to better yields. Southern Arkansas is seen ready for harvest in the next 10 to 14 days.
United States Seeding Progress
(per cent planted on May 12)
---------------------------------------------
: Week Ending :
:-----------------------: 1997-
:May 12,:May 5, :May 12,: 2001
: 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg.
---------------------------------------------
Corn : 62 42 71 72
Soybean : 17 7 34 29
Cotton : 55 41 58 49
Spring Wheat : 47 38 51 63
Barley : 48 39 59 65
Oats : 68 58 69 76
Sorghum : 30 25 34 29
Rice : 83 73 88 79
Peanuts : 37 17 44 39
Sugarbeets : 76 71 56 83
---------------------------------------------
The impact of the cool and damp weather conditions is most evident in the emergence data compiled by the USDA. There is a wider spread between the percentage of crops emerged so far this year and last year, than there is between the percentage of crops seeded. This makes it clear cool temperatures are slowing crop development.
United States Crop Emergence
(per cent as of May 12)
---------------------------------------------
: Week Ending :
:-----------------------: 1997-
:May 12,:May 5, :May 12,: 2001
: 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg.
---------------------------------------------
Corn : 21 12 41 NA
Soybeans : 3 NA 12 NA
Barley : 21 14 30 37
Spring Wheat : 16 10 23 36
Oats : 43 30 40 52
Rice : 67 54 67 54
--------------------------------------------
Only active subscribers can read all of this article.
If you are a subscriber, please log into the website.
If you are not a subscriber, click here to subscribe to this edition of the STAT website and to learn more about becoming a subscriber.
