March Closes With Massive Soy Stocks

BRASILIA - May 13/02 - STAT -- Brazil's soybean industry recorded a relatively strong March for product usage rates, lifting usage levels for the first quarter of the 2002 calendar closer to year earlier figures, according to data compiled by the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE).

The total quantity of soybeans crushed during March reached 1.87 million metric tons (MT), a solid improvement on the 1.71 million crushed during the same month last year. Crush activity during the month was just 1,000 MT behind levels reported in March, 2000.

This lifted crush during the opening quarter of the calendar year to 3.93 million MT, down from the 4.06 million processed between January 1 and March 31 last year.

Exports were also up sharply in March, jumping roughly a million MT on the availability of new crop merchandise to an estimated 1.15 million. This lifted exports for the quarter 1.362 million MT, well ahead of the 1.063 million shipped during the same period last year.

Net purchases of soybeans from growers were unusually high at 8.26 million MT, with result ending stocks for the month reached a record 6.177 million MT. The previous monthly high for March was 5.121 million MT for the same month in 1999. This is well above the 4.638 million MT on hand as of March 31, 2001.

Stocks on hand often peak in April, with the country typically having 3 to 3.5 million MT more beans on hand that month than during March. Stocks start dropping in May, reaching their lowest point of the year in January and February.

If this stocks in April and May maintain the same relationship to March this year as in the past, Brazil could finish those months with around 10 million MT of soybeans on hand. This would be an unusually large quantity of beans to have on hand, and compares to around 8.5 million MT during each the two months last year and an average of around 7.9 million MT in the year 2000.

                   Brazilian -- Soybean Usage Update
                             (metric tons)
Soybean               Feb-Jan     Feb-Jan     Jan-Mar     Jan-Mar      Mar-02
                      2000-01     2001-02     2000-01     2001-02        2002
Beginning Stocks      459,000     408,000     969,000     494,000   1,041,000
Net Purchases      29,603,000  29,136,000   9,053,000  11,169,000   8,260,000
Crushing           21,542,000  20,343,000   4,063,000   3,928,000   1,873,000
Industry Exports    6,691,000   7,750,000   1,063,000   1,362,000   1,150,000
Domestic Sales      1,421,000   1,151,000     258,000     196,000     101,000
Ending Stocks         408,000     300,000   4,638,000   6,177,000   6,177,000
Soymeal
Beginning Stocks      438,000     460,000     953,000     571,000     423,000
Production         16,831,000  15,808,000   3,162,000   3,037,000   1,452,000
Imports               119,000     213,000      44,000      73,000      21,000
Exports             9,873,000   9,501,000   2,063,000   1,429,000     658,000
Domestic Use        7,055,000   6,665,000   1,554,000   1,640,000     626,000
Ending Stocks         460,000     315,000     542,000     612,000     612,000
Soyoil
Beginning Stocks      195,000     246,000     307,000     197,000     114,000
Production          4,110,000   3,902,000     774,000     751,000     360,000
Imports               111,000      67,000      23,000     188,000     175,000
Exports             1,148,000   1,381,000     246,000     198,000      66,000
Domestic Use        3,022,000   2,734,000     683,000     759,000     404,000
Ending Stocks         246,000     100,000     175,000     179,000     179,000
SOURCE: ABIOVE