Crop Prospects Improve in Uzbekistan

WASHINGTON - May 10/02 - SNS -- The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service credits beneficial rainfall throughout the winter and spring for boosting wheat prospects in northern Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan). This season's opening moisture situation ends three years of drought in the region.

The USDA estimates 2002-03 wheat production at 3.6 million metric tons (MT) for Uzbekistan, up from 3.4 million last year. Output in Kyrgyzstan is expected to advance from 1.25 million MT last year to three million; while production is unchanged at 1.2 million MT in Turkmenistan; and rises 100,000 MT to 300,000 in Tajikistan. Wheat comprises nearly 90% of total grain area in northern Central Asia.

Vegetation indices derived from NOAA-AVHRR satellite imagery indicate significant year-to-year improvement in central Uzbekistan (where 70% of the country's wheat is grown). Conditions have improved also in Tajikistan, where the persistent drought had a particularly large impact on 2001-02 grain production, and crop conditions in Kyrgyzstan are similar to last year's record-breaking crop.

Winter grains throughout the region have benefited from relatively abundant precipitation since last November following three consecutive years of persistent dryness. Conditions were favorable for germination and establishment of winter crops last autumn, and the increased precipitation has helped to replenish supplies of irrigation water. Most grains in the region are irrigated.