Russian, Ukraine Grain Output Lowered
WASHINGTON - May 11/02 - SNS -- The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service lowered the projected size of this year's grain harvest in both Russia and the Ukraine.
The USDA estimates Russian total grain production for 2002-03 at 74.6 million metric tons (MT), a sharp reduction from the 85.0 million produced last year. Ukraine grain production for 2002-03 is estimated at 35.3 million MT, down from last year's 39.6 million MT harvest.
The USDA is looking for the Russian wheat harvest to drop from 46.9 million to 41 million MT; while barley slips from 19.5 million to 16 million MT; rye drops from 6.6 million to 6 million MT; oats slips from 7.7 million to 7 million MT; corn advances from 800,000 to 1.4 million MT; millet is unchanged at 600,000 MT; rise is unchanged at 300,000 MT; and production of pulses and other grains drops from 2.4 million to 2.2 million MT.
While this marks a significant drop from last year's bumper crop, current crop conditions are generally favorable and estimated yield and production for 2002-03 are above average.
Ukraine grain production for 2002-03 is estimated at 35.3 million MT, down from last year's 39.6 million MT harvest. The biggest decline is for wheat, expected to slide from 21.3 million MT last year to 18.5 million MT this year; while barley drops from 10.2 million to 9 million MT; corn inches up from 3.6 to 3.7 million MT; rye drops from 1.8 to 1.6 million MT; and production of pulses and other grains inches down from 1.6 million to 1.,5 million MT.
As in Russia, conditions have been generally favorable but not as good as last year. Winter-crop conditions improved over the course of the winter and early spring, following fall dryness that hampered germination and establishment in southern and eastern Ukraine.
Satellite-derived vegetative indices reflect the overall reduction in vegetative vigor from last year in Ukraine and in Russia's Central and Volga Districts, but weather data indicate that crop conditions remain generally good in all winter grain regions, with near-normal precipitation and above-average temperatures.
In southern Russia, where roughly half of the country's winter wheat is grown, winter grain conditions are arguably as good as last year, when yield in the Southern District reached a seven-year high. An unusually warm March triggered an early resumption of vegetative growth for winter grains and enabled farmers to get an early start on spring grain planting.
In southern, eastern, and central Ukraine, precipitation has been about average (and above average in the west) but not as abundant as last spring's rainfall. As in Russia, winter crops in Ukraine benefited from warm March weather. Although cooler April weather slowed crop development, winter grains throughout Russia and Ukraine had reached the jointing (stem elongation) stage by May 1, only slightly behind last year's rapid development.
Spring sowing progress is considerably ahead of last year's pace in both countries, according to Ministry of Agriculture data cited by the Reuters, Argus, and Interfax news agencies. As of May 6, 12.1 million hectares of spring grains had been planted in Russia, compared to 11.3 million by the same date last year and against an announced target of 33.5 million. Planting typically continues through May.
In Ukraine, the sowing of early spring grains (chiefly barley) was finished by late April, and the planting of summer crops (chiefly corn, sunflowers, and sugar beets) was nearing completion by the first week in May.
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