USDA Expects 155 Million Bushel Oat Crop
WASHINGTON - May 10/02 - STAT -- The USDA released its first estimate of the supply-demand picture facing oats, barley and sorghum in that country for the 2002-03 marketing campaign and is looking for stocks of the three grains to rise in response to projected increase in the size of this year's crops.
Oat production in the United States is expected to total 155 million bushels, well ahead of the 117 million bushels produced last year, but only slightly ahead of the 200 harvest of 150 million bushels. Imports are expected to rise five million bushels to 100 million.
Combined with a projected ending stock of 55 million bushels, total supplies of oats for 2002-03 could reach 310 million bushels. This compares to a projected supply of 285 million bushels this season and 332 million at the start of the 2000-01 marketing year.
Not surprisingly, the USDA expects average prices to decline in the coming year, forecasting a price range of U.S. 90 cents to $1.30 per bushel, compared to this season's projected season average farm gate price of $1.55 per bushel in the United States and the 2000-01 average of just $1.10 per bushel.
The USDA is looking for grain sorghum output to rise from 515 million to 533 million bushels this year, while barley production advances from 250 to 278 million bushels. The U.S. does not import sorghum, but barley purchases are also expected to rise during the 2002-03 marketing year from a projected 23 million bushels this season to 30 million as feed demand grows from 95 to 110 million bushels, while other domestic uses remain unchanged at 172 million bushels for the third year in a row.
U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1-
===============================================================================
: : : 2002-03 Projections
Item : 2000-01 : 2001-02 :==============================
: : Est. : May
===============================================================================
: Million bushels
SORGHUM :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.2 10.3 9.0 *
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.6 7.7 *
Yield (bushels-acre) : 60.9 59.9 69.0 *
Beginning stocks : 65 42 46
Production : 471 515 533
Imports : 0 0 0
Supply, total : 536 556 579
Feed and residual : 220 215 225
Food, seed & industrial : 35 45 50
Total domestic : 255 260 275
Exports : 239 250 250
Use, total : 494 510 525
Ending stocks, total : 42 46 54
Avg. farm price ($-bu) 2- : 1.89 1.80- 1.90 1.60- 2.00
:
BARLEY :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.9 5.0 5.1 *
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.2 4.3 4.5 *
Yield (bushels-acre) : 61.1 58.2 62.1 *
Beginning stocks : 111 106 84
Production : 319 250 278
Imports : 29 23 30
Supply, total : 459 379 392
Feed and residual : 123 95 110
Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172
Total domestic : 295 267 282
Exports : 58 28 25
Use, total : 353 295 307
Ending stocks, total : 106 84 85
Avg. farm price ($-bu) 2- : 2.11 2.23 1.95- 2.35
:
OATS :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.5 4.4 5.1 *
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.3 1.9 2.5 *
Yield (bushels-acre) : 64.2 61.3 61.2 *
Beginning stocks : 76 73 55
Production : 150 117 155
Imports : 106 95 100
Supply, total : 332 285 310
Feed and residual : 189 155 175
Food, seed & industrial : 68 72 72
Total domestic : 257 227 247
Exports : 2 3 2
Use, total : 259 230 249
Ending stocks, total : 73 55 61
Avg. farm price ($-bu) 2- : 1.10 1.55 0.90- 1.30
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1- Marketing year beginning
September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2- Marketing-year weighted
average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in March 28, 2002,
Prospective Plantings. Sorghum and barley: Harvested acres projected by using
relationship between planted and harvested for 1999-2001 for sorghum and
1999-2001 for barley. For sorghum, barley, and oats projected yield derived
from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2001 period. Oats: Harvested acres
reported in March 28, 2002 Prospective Plantings.
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