World Rice Production Slips to 395.5 MMT

WASHINGTON - May 10/02 - STAT -- World rice production is expected to shrink during the 2002-03 season, according to preliminary new crop supply and demand forecasts developed by the USDA.

Global 2002-03 rice production is projected at 395.5 million metric tons (MT) assuming normal global weather, down slightly from the revised 2001-02 forecast. World consumption is projected at a record level. Global exports are expected to pick up compared to the levels of 2001-02 and 2000-01. Ending stocks in 2002-03 are projected to decline 11% to a little over 112 million MT, the third consecutive year of falling stocks.

World production for 2001-02 is increased 1.3 million MT this month to 396.5 million MT, largely because of increases in Burma, Cambodia, and India; partially offset by a reduction in Indonesia. India's 2001-02 rice crop is estimated at a record 90 million MT, 1 million MT above last month and 5.1 million MT above 2000-01. Exports in 2001-02 in Burma and India are raised while Vietnam's exports are lowered.

                USDA World Rice Supply-Demand Projections
===============================================================================
                      :           :   Total   :          :  Total   :  Ending
     Commodity        :   Output  :   Supply  : Trade 2- :   Use    :  Stocks
===============================================================================
      1999-00         :    401.95     534.00      21.29      394.66    142.15
      2000-01         :    397.33     541.21      24.64      404.23    136.99
      2001-02 (Est.)  :    396.53     533.51      24.33      406.91    126.61
      2002-03 (Proj.) :    395.51     522.12      25.50      410.00    112.12

U.S. rice production in 2002-03 is projected at 208 million cwt, down 2% from 2001-02 but still the second largest crop on record. Harvested area in 2002-03 is projected at 3.3 million acres, based on the NASS Prospective Plantings report, and is nearly unchanged from 2001-02.

Rice yield is projected at 6,299 pounds per acre, down 2% from the 2001-02 record. Long-grain rice production is projected at 160 million cwt, down 3% from the record of 2001-02, while combined medium- and short-grain rice production is projected at 48 million cwt, nearly the same as in 2001-02.

Domestic and residual use is projected at a record 126.1 million cwt, up nearly 2.5%. Exports are projected at 92 million cwt, up 2% from the revised 2001-02 level. Rough rice exports are projected at 27 million cwt, equal to revised 2001-02 exports. Ending stocks for 2002-03 are projected at 44.6 million cwt, up about 7.5%.

Ending stocks of long-grain rice for 2002-03 are projected at 36.1 million cwt while combined medium- and short-grain stocks are projected at 7.2 million cwt.

Rice prices are expected to continue to be under pressure from intense competition among the major exporters as well as burdensome domestic supplies. The season-average price range for 2002-03 is $3.95 to $4.45 per cwt compared to $4.15 to $4.25 per cwt for 2001-02. The 2002-03 milling yield is projected at 69%, the same as the revised rate for 2001-02.

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