Global Oilseed Expansion Continues
WASHINGTON - May 10/02 - STAT -- Global oilseed production is expected to continue its recent upward trend this year, rising 2.1% to 331 million metric tons (MT), according to the first 2002-03 supply and demand outlook developed by the USDA.
Unfortunately, while developing domestic supply-demand forecasts for oilseeds within the United States, the USDA did not try to assemble world numbers for oilseed usage or global oilmeal and vegetable oil supply and disappearance.
Commenting on the international numbers, the USDA noted soybean production is reduced this month for both Paraguay and Indonesia, based largely on reduced yields. Other production changes this month include a 200,000 MT increase in sunflower seed production for Argentina, and a 700,000 MT increase for Indonesia's palm oil production.
Soybean imports for China are reduced 1 million MT this month, declining to a projected 11 million MT. Soybean exports from Brazil and Argentina are reduced this month, reflecting the reduced import demand by China.
In looking at the situation within the United States, the USDA anticipates this year's reduction in the size of the soybean harvest will force an overall decline in oilseed output to from 89.86 million MT last year to 87.6 million.
This will result in a net decrease in total supply and with domestic crush expected to grow by half a million tons to 51.04 million, oilseed exports from the United States are expected to drop from 28.79 to 27.29 million MT. The net effect is a projected decrease in U.S. ending stocks from this summer's anticipated 8.41 million MT total to 7.96 million MT a year hence.
Soybean production in the United States will decline about 40 million bushels to a projected 2.85 billion bushels, or 77.6 million tons. Other U.S. oilseed production is expected to decrease by over 1 million tons, led by projected reductions for cottonseed and sunflower seed.
U.S. soybean production is based on intended soybean plantings of 73 million acres and a trend yield of 39.7 bushels per acre. Soybean supplies are projected at 3.1 billion bushels, almost unchanged from 2001-02 due to larger carryin stocks. A modest increase in domestic soybean crush is expected, reflecting expanding pork and poultry production.
Reduced export prospects leave the projected soybean carryover little changed from the forecast 2001-02 level. U.S. soybean and soybean meal export prospects in 2002-03 are reduced because of record competitor supplies, particularly in the first half of the marketing year.
U.S. season-average soybean prices for 2002-03 are projected at $4.00 to $4.90 per bushel, compared with a forecast of $4.25 per bushel in 2001-02. Based on a midpoint of $4.45 per bushel, this would be the first annual price increase since 1996-97.
For products, soybean meal prices are projected at $145 to $175 per short ton, compared with $159 per ton forecast for 2001-02. Soybean oil prices in 2002-03 are projected at 15 to 18 cents per pound, compared with 15.1 cents per pound forecast for 2001-02.
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1-
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2- : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
Oilseeds :
1999-00 : 303.31 335.13 64.47 247.57 34.24
2000-01 : 313.35 347.38 71.68 256.20 33.83
2001-02 (Est.) : 324.08 357.91 70.36 266.24 33.14
2002-03 (Proj.) : 331.00 364.14
Oilmeals :
1999-00 : 168.79 175.55 56.14 169.45 5.69
2000-01 : 176.59 182.35 56.93 176.75 5.25
2001-02 (Est.) : 183.64 188.89 58.95 183.32 5.22
2002-03 (Proj.) :
Vegetable Oils :
1999-00 : 85.86 93.22 32.81 83.90 8.11
2000-01 : 89.64 97.69 34.87 89.38 8.03
2001-02 (Est.) : 91.42 99.45 35.88 91.83 7.09
2002-03 (Proj.) :
:
: United States
Oilseeds :
1999-00 : 82.31 93.85 27.34 47.90 8.98
2000-01 : 84.89 94.69 28.08 49.02 7.83
2001-02 (Est.) : 89.86 98.28 28.79 50.53 8.41
2002-03 (Proj.) : 87.60 96.60 27.39 51.04 7.96
Oilmeals :
1999-00 : 36.70 38.27 6.85 31.12 0.30
2000-01 : 38.20 39.66 7.19 32.07 0.40
2001-02 (Est.) : 38.91 40.28 7.31 32.67 0.30
2002-03 (Proj.) : 39.33 40.88 7.20 33.40 0.28
Vegetable Oils :
1999-00 : 9.37 11.90 1.13 9.55 1.21
2000-01 : 9.51 12.42 1.06 9.67 1.69
2001-02 (Est.) : 9.68 12.98 1.43 10.09 1.47
2002-03 (Proj.) : 9.87 13.19 1.28 10.46 1.32
===============================================================================
1- Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an
Oct.-Sept. year. 2- Crush only for oilseeds.
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