USDA Optimistic About Coarse Grain Demand
WASHINGTON - May 10/02 - STAT -- The world is looking at the chance of a massive increase in coarse grain production levels during the 2002-03 season, though the USDA is highly optimistic consumers will rise to the challenge and eat their way through the increase and then some.
Releasing its first estimates for the 2002-03 season, the USDA said global coarse grain production should come in at 905.18 million metric tons (MT), a massive increase from the 880.07 million MT produced during the current marketing year and last season's paltry 858.02 million MT global harvest.
USDA World Coarse Grain Supply-Demand Projections
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: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2- : Use : Stocks
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Coarse grains 4- :
1999/00 : 876.63 1,091.37 122.42 881.91 209.46
2000-01 : 858.02 1,067.72 105.80 881.64 186.08
2001-02 (Est.) : 880.07 1,066.15 97.72 899.00 167.14
2002-03 (Proj.) : 905.18 1,072.32 99.56 913.67 158.64
Total usage, however, is expected to soar from a projected 899 million MT this season to 913.67 million MT in the coming marketing year, with the result world coarse grain ending stocks post their fourth consecutive decline. World season ending stocks stood at 214.74 million MT at the close of the 1998-99 marketing year and have since sunk to this year's projected 167.14 million. The USDA expects them to fall further, collapsing to 158.64 million MT by the close of the 2002-03 season.
Consumption, while relatively stable across the 1999-00 and 2000-01 marketing years at just under 882 million MT, is expected to reach 899 million MT this season and advance to 913.67 million MT across the 2002-03 marketing campaign. However, world trade in coarse grains is not nearly as important as it was at the begging of the recent four year period. World trade stood at 122.42 million MT during the 1999-00 season and is expected to reach only 97.72 million MT this season, while advancing to 99.56 million in the coming year.
Some shifts are expected in world trading patterns, however, with the USDA expecting a decline in Brazilian exports on account of high prices on the country;s internal market, while China's exports are expected to drop back from a projected six million MT this season to just four million.
Looking at the situation in the United States, the USDA said the U.S. 2002-03 corn crop is projected at 9,935 million bushels, up almost 5% from last year, based on prospective plantings reported in March, harvested-to-planted relationships for recent years, and trend yields. However, the larger crop is partially offset by smaller expected carryin stocks, and total 2002-03 corn supplies are up only a little more than 1%.
Total use in 2002-03 is expected to expand due to gains in domestic use and exports. Domestic use is expected to rise slightly as expanding industrial use more than offsets reduced feed and residual use because of declining cattle on feed. U.S. corn exports, however, are projected up significantly because of less competition from foreign exporters. With use exceeding production, 2002-03 ending stocks of corn are down slightly from the forecast carryin level. The projected price range for corn is $1.75 to $2.15 for 2002-03 and $1.85 to $1.95 for 2001-02.
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