Slight Decrease in U.S. Orange Output

WASHINGTON - May 10/02 - STAT -- Orange production in the United States looks like it will be 1% smaller than initially expected, with this season's harvest now pegged at 12.3 million tons.

In releasing its latest estimates, the USDA said Florida's all orange forecast dropped to 226 million boxes (10.2 million tons), 1% less than the previous forecast but 1% higher than last season. If the utilization is attained, it will be the fourth largest crop produced in Florida.

Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 128 million boxes (5.76 million tons), unchanged from the April 1 forecast and equal to last season's final utilization. Harvest of these varieties is complete. Florida's Valencia forecast is 98 million boxes (4.41 million tons), 2% lower than the previous forecast but 3% above the previous season.

Warmer weather earlier than usual and the lack of moisture accelerated droppage and limited sizing during April. Fruit size increased only slightly and remains below average. Loss from droppage continues below average although it is higher than the previous two seasons. Arizona, California, and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from the April 1 forecasts.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield is projected at 1.58 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from last month. The early and midseason portion is final at 1.53 gallons per box, the same as in April. The projected season average yield for the Valencia oranges remains at 1.68 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationships this year will be similar to those of the past several years.