Argentine Sunseed Estimates Lifted to 3.7 MMT

BUENOS AIRES - May 9/02 - STAT -- The latest sunflower production estimates for Argentine see a bigger crop than initially expected, with crops showing little impact from the weather which slowed the rate of harvest.

Both the Argentine government and U.S. agricultural attache here have raised their crop production estimates roughly 200,000 metric tons (MT) to 3.7 million tons for the crop currently being harvested. The changes were based on reports of excellent yields.

Reporting on the situation, the U.S. agricultural attache notes delays in planting the crop were a concern at the start of the season, but favorable weather late in the crop's development insured good yields.

"We are increasing the estimate of exports for the current marketing year to 280,000 tons on the basis of export sales reported through May 1, 2002," the report states.

Looking forward, a small increase in seeded area is expected for next year's crop on account of good market returns from this year's crop and the lower cost of sunflower relative to alternative crops such as corn. Total production is expected to reach 3.8 million tons.

Opening stocks appear to be lower than initially thought on account of a larger crush the previous year and lower stocks in place on March 1, 2001. This season's opening stocks are now pegged at 58,000 MT, down from an initial forecast of 98,000. Crush for the current crop is expected to reach 3.37 million MT, well above the 2.97 million MT processed last year. If exports reach 280,000 MT and other uses 40,000 MT, Argentina will finish the year with 68,000 MT of sunflower seed on hand.

Looking toward the coming year, average yields would result in a 3.8 million MT crop if 2.15 million hectares of sunflower are sown. This would allow the country to export at least 200,000 MT of sunflower, while crushing 3.56 million MT.