General Decline in Canadian Grain Stocks

OTTAWA - May 7/02 - STAT -- Last year's decline in Canadian crop production levels are clearly visible in the latest stocks in all positions report released by Statistics Canada.

The quantity of all major grains and oilseeds on hand is down from year earlier levels. The stocks figures parallel the production results for the 2001-02 crop year with declines reported for all grains and oilseeds except corn. Corn acreage and yields in Canada were higher than the 2000-01 crop year.

Total wheat stocks, including durum, decreased by 3.72 million metric tons (MT) from March 31, 2001 to 13.21 million MT. Western Canadian on-farm stocks accounted for most of the decline (-28%). Western Canadian farm stocks of wheat fell 3.12 million MT to 8.02 million MT.

Farm wheat inventories are especially low in southern Saskatchewan and Alberta, where last year's severely dry weather reduced production. The elevator system throughout this region is experiencing lower deliveries as a result of low farm stocks.

Despite a 16% (-2.11 million MT) drop in production in the fall of 2001, total barley stocks are down only 6% to 6.18 million MT.

Record high imports of US corn into the feed deficit region of southern Alberta resulted in a less-than-expected domestic movement and tempered the reduction of barley stocks.

Western Canadian on-farm stocks of barley are down 9% from 2001 to 4.79 million MT. This is the lowest on-farm stock number since the 1995-96 crop year, when stocks were at 4.29 million MT. Given that feed consumption across western Canada has steadily increased over the past six years, the ratio of domestic demand versus stocks has also increased.

On-farm oat stocks were reported at 916,000 MT, down 36% from 2001. This is the lowest level since 1995-96, when stocks were reported at 911,000 MT. Commercial stocks are down 34% from 2001 to 157,000 MT.

Western Canadian farmers reported on-farm stocks at 830,000 MT, down 520,000 MT from 2001.

On-farm corn stocks are up 15% from 2001 to 3.33 million MT - just under the record 3.35 million MT set in 2000.

A better-than-expected corn yield last fall in eastern Canada coupled with increased imports of US corn resulted in higher on-farm stocks. Commercial stocks of corn are unchanged from 2001.

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