Minor Drop in Winter Wheat Quality

WASHINGTON - May 6/02 - STAT -- There was a slight decrease in the overall condition of this year's winter wheat crop in the latest crop progress data developed by the USDA.

While leaving the percentage of the crop in the good to excellent category unchanged at 36%, the USDA increased the percentage of crop in the very poor rating by one point to 17% and reduced the amount considered fair by one point to 31%.

These numbers are well behind last year, when 41% of the crop was rated good toe excellent and 26% was in the very poor to poor category instead of the 33% of the crop sitting in that category this year.

This remains a concern to markets, Tim Hannagan of Chicago's Alaron Trading Corporation stresses, "With one month before harvest begins in earnest, this crop will be hard pressed to improve quality levels to attract demand. These crop ratings remain bearish for prices as they suggest the U.S. will be a second or third port to turn to for high quality milling wheat."

Commenting on today's market conditions on the Chicago Board of Trade, Dave Lehl of Benson-Quinn Commodities Inc. said Chicago was the catalyst for wheat's direction today as prices there rose on concerns over too much moisture and the potential for disease in the soft red crop.

"The trading range of 2.80 to 2.88 in the July seems to be in place until Friday's (USDA crop) report," Lehl said, "with many traders watching forecasts for more rain next weekend in the hard red region that could improve conditions."

Current weather forecasts are looking for rainfall of 0.30 to one inch through Wednesday from northeastern Texas into eastern parts of Kansas and Nebraska, maintaining favorable soil moisture in the eastern wheat producing areas.

However, rainfall is expected to miss the majority of the western hard winter wheat areas through midweek. At least 0.50 inch of rainfall is needed in that region by mid-month. Moisture would be key as forecasts call for highs in the 80s and lower 90s from Kansas through Texas over the next three days, said a market reporter with the CBOT.

     Winter Wheat:  Crop Condition
      by Percent, Selected States
--------------------------------------
  State : VP  :  P  :  F  :  G  : EX
--------------------------------------
        :           Percent
        :
AR      :  3    17    37    38     5
CA      :  0     0    10    80    10
CO      : 21    25    36    17     1
ID      :  1     2    29    61     7
IL      :  1     6    26    54    13
IN      :  0     6    28    52    14
KS      : 18    22    32    25     3
MI      :  1     4    25    52    18
MO      :  0     5    22    61    12
MT      : 40    22    29     8     1
NE      : 11    23    43    22     1
NC      :  1     8    37    51     3
OH      :  2     5    25    53    15
OK      : 22    14    29    31     4
OR      : 22    19    28    25     6
SD      :  2     9    30    50     9
TX      : 26    23    28    20     3
WA      :  1     7    30    54     8
        :
18 Sts  : 16    17    31    31     5
        :
Prev Wk : 15    17    32    31     5
Prev Yr :  9    17    33    35     6
--------------------------------------
VP-Very Poor, P-Poor, F-Fair, G-Good, EX-Excellent.

Only active subscribers can read all of this article.

If you are a subscriber, please log into the website.

If you are not a subscriber, click here to subscribe to this edition of the STAT website and to learn more about becoming a subscriber.

Minor Drop in Winter Wheat Quality

Recent Grain Headlines