Modest Dip In Corn Forecast

WASHINGTON - Oct 12/22 - SNS -- This year's U.S. corn harvest is now expected to total 13.9 billion bushels, down less than 1% from the previous forecast and down 8% from 2021, according to the USDA.

Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 171.9 bushels per harvested acre, down 0.6 bushel from the previous forecast and down 4.8 bushels from last year.

After a thorough review of all available data, acreage estimates are unchanged from last month. Total planted area, at 88.6 million acres, is unchanged from the previous estimate but down 5% from the previous year. Area harvested for grain, forecast at 80.8 million acres, is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 5% from the previous year.

The October 1 corn objective yield data indicate the seventh highest number of ears on record for the combined objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin).

Corn for Grain Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2021 and
Forecasted October 1, 2022
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                 :  Area harvested   :          Yield per acre          :     Production
                 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------
      State      :         :         :          :         2022          :          :
                 :  2021   :  2022   :   2021   :-----------------------:   2021   :   2022
                 :         :         :          :September 1: October 1 :          :
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :    1,000 acres      ----------- bushels ----------    --- 1,000 bushels ---
                 :
Alabama .........:    340       290      163.0      122.0       129.0        55,420     37,410
Arkansas ........:    830       690      184.0      176.0       176.0       152,720    121,440
California ......:     50        20      188.0      200.0       200.0         9,400      4,000
Colorado ........:  1,150     1,100      129.0      123.0       125.0       148,350    137,500
Delaware ........:    172       162      184.0      165.0       170.0        31,648     27,540
Georgia .........:    445       385      182.0      171.0       171.0        80,990     65,835
Idaho ...........:    120       105      210.0      200.0       200.0        25,200     21,000
Illinois ........: 10,850    10,550      202.0      204.0       210.0     2,191,700  2,215,500
Indiana .........:  5,270     5,050      195.0      186.0       187.0     1,027,650    944,350
Iowa ............: 12,450    12,450      204.0      200.0       200.0     2,539,800  2,490,000
                 :
Kansas ..........:  5,400     5,150      139.0      122.0       115.0       750,600    592,250
Kentucky ........:  1,440     1,330      192.0      150.0       149.0       276,480    198,170
Louisiana .......:    565       435      183.0      165.0       165.0       103,395     71,775
Maryland ........:    425       375      175.0      172.0       174.0        74,375     65,250
Michigan ........:  1,990     1,970      174.0      168.0       166.0       346,260    327,020
Minnesota .......:  7,840     7,550      177.0      190.0       190.0     1,387,680  1,434,500
Mississippi .....:    700       550      181.0      172.0       167.0       126,700     91,850
Missouri ........:  3,430     3,200      159.0      149.0       151.0       545,370    483,200
Nebraska ........:  9,560     9,300      194.0      176.0       172.0     1,854,640  1,599,600
New York ........:    580       515      167.0      152.0       154.0        96,860     79,310
                 :
North Carolina ..:    905       785      149.0      114.0       116.0       134,845     91,060
North Dakota ....:  3,630     2,700      105.0      141.0       141.0       381,150    380,700
Ohio ............:  3,340     3,120      193.0      186.0       187.0       644,620    583,440
Oklahoma ........:    295       305      150.0      120.0       125.0        44,250     38,125
Pennsylvania ....:    990       850      169.0      150.0       148.0       167,310    125,800
South Carolina ..:    380       300      139.0      126.0       125.0        52,820     37,500
South Dakota ....:  5,480     5,250      134.0      138.0       130.0       734,320    682,500
Tennessee .......:    950       805      170.0      127.0       126.0       161,500    101,430
Texas ...........:  1,850     1,780      128.0      104.0       100.0       236,800    178,000
Virginia ........:    360       345      160.0      162.0       161.0        57,600     55,545
Washington ......:     85        70      248.0      225.0       240.0        21,080     16,800
Wisconsin .......:  3,000     2,950      180.0      183.0       182.0       540,000    536,900
                 :
Other States 1/ .:    446       407      162.1      149.8       147.1        72,287     59,876
                 :
United States ...: 85,318    80,844      176.7      172.5       171.9    15,073,820 13,895,176
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1/ Other States include Arizona, Florida, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, West
   Virginia, and Wyoming. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop
   Production 2022 Summary."