OTTAWA - Sep 14/22 - SNS -- Production of nearly all field crops in Canada will be up over last year because of higher yields resulting from better growing conditions in Western Canada, notes Statistics Canada and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada in their latest model based production forecast for 2022.
The Crop Condition Assessment Program indicates that plant health in Western Canada varied as of August 31. In areas that received sufficient precipitation and warm temperatures, crop condition is considered higher than normal. In some drier areas that experienced higher-than-average temperatures throughout August, crop condition deteriorated and is now considered lower than normal.
Despite the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index exceeding normal magnitude for most areas in Western Canada midway through the 2022 growing season, growing conditions throughout the month of August may have decreased yield potential in some areas.
Despite potentially reduced yields, conditions across Western Canada are generally more favourable than in 2021. Much of the Prairies have received consistent precipitation since June, except for southwestern and central parts of Saskatchewan.
In Eastern Canada, much of southern Ontario has experienced drier-than-average conditions, while eastern parts of Ontario and most of Quebec received higher-than-average rainfall. In general, temperatures over the last month of the growing season were warmer than normal as of August 31.
Increased Oilseed Output
Nationally, in 2022, canola production is expected to rise by 38.8% to 19.1 million metric tons (MT), as growing conditions in the Prairies improved considerably relative to 2021. While the rise pushed yields higher (+44.9% to 39.7 bushels per acre), they are below the five-year average of 41.5 bushels per acre from 2016 to 2020.
Saskatchewan is expected to produce 43.5% more canola in 2022 than in 2021, at 9.7 million MT. Yields are projected to increase by 51.2% to 37.8 bushels per acre, while harvested area is expected to fall by 5.1% to 11.3 million acres.
Canola production in Alberta is expected to increase by 40.3% to 6.1 million MT. Higher yields (+44.3% to 41.7 bushels per acre) are expected to offset the decrease in harvested area (-2.8% to 6.4 million acres).
In Manitoba, yields are expected to rise by 30.0% to 42.5 bushels per acre, offsetting a projected 3.8% decrease in harvested area to 3.3 million acres, resulting in a 25.0% production increase to 3.1 million MT.\
Nationally, soybean production is projected to increase by 3.7% year over year to 6.5 million MT in 2022. Yields are expected to rise by 5.5% to 46.1 bushels per acre, while harvested area is anticipated to decrease by 1.7% to 5.2 million acres.
Soybean production in Ontario is expected to edge up 0.7% in 2022 to 4.1 million MT. Harvested area is expected to rise by 5.5% to 3.1 million acres, while yields are anticipated to fall 4.5% to 49.3 bushels per acre.
In Manitoba, soybean production is projected to increase by 23.7% to 1.2 million MT in 2022. Harvested area is projected to decrease by 14.3% to 1.1 million acres. However, yields are projected to rise by 44.3% year over year to 39.1 bushels per acre because moisture conditions have improved.
In Quebec, soybean production is projected to increase by 4.7% to 1.2 million MT on higher anticipated yields (+0.9% to 44.6 bushels per acre), while harvested area is expected to rise by 3.7% to 950,900 acres.
Major Jump In Wheat Output
Nationally, wheat production is projected to increase by 55.6% year over year to 34.7 million MT in 2022. This increase is largely attributable to higher anticipated yields, which are expected to rise by 42.1% to 51.3 bushels per acre, roughly in line with the five-year average of 51.0 bushels per acre from 2016 to 2020. Harvested area is also expected to increase by 9.4% to 24.9 million acres.
The increase in expected total wheat production is largely attributable to spring wheat, which is anticipated to rise by 60.3% to 26.1 million MT. This increase is a result of higher anticipated yields (+42.4% to 53.7 bushels per acre) and harvested area (+12.5% to 17.8 million acres).
Durum wheat yields are also anticipated to rise (+90.1% to 38.4 bushels per acre), contributing to higher expected production (+101.3% to 6.1 million MT).
Wheat yields in Saskatchewan are expected to rise by 54.8% to 43.5 bushels per acre in 2022, while harvested area is projected to rise by 12.5%, resulting in a 74.0% increase in production to 15.4 million MT.
Compared with 2021, wheat production in Alberta is projected to increase by 80.1% to 11.6 million MT, which is largely the result of higher yields (+64.9% to 57.4 bushels per acre), while harvested area is expected to rise by 9.3% to 7.4 million acres.
In Manitoba, wheat harvested area is expected to rise by 11.4% to 3.2 million acres, while yields are anticipated to increase by 23.8% to 59.3 bushels per acre. Total wheat production is anticipated to rise by 37.8% year over year to 5.2 million MT.
Wheat production in Ontario (the majority of which is winter wheat) is projected to fall by 22.7% to 2.2 million MT year over year in 2022 as a result of lower harvested acres (-20.6%) and yields (-2.7%).
Coarse Grains Follow Trend
Nationally, corn for grain production is projected to increase by 6.3% to 14.9 million MT in 2022, with yields anticipated to rise to 164.3 bushels per acre (+2.6%) and harvested area expected to rise to 3.6 million acres (+3.6%).
In Ontario, the largest corn for grain-producing province, production is expected to rise by 3.5% to 9.8 million MT on higher harvested area (+5.0% to 2.2 million acres), offsetting lower yields (-1.5% to 172.6 bushels per acre).
Corn for grain production in Quebec is projected to rise by 3.9% to 3.6 million MT. Yields are expected to rise by 3.3% to 157.7 bushels per acre, while harvested area is expected to edge up by 0.6% to 887,400 acres.
Higher barley yields compared with 2021 (+59.1% to 68.4 bushels per acre) are projected to more than offset lower anticipated harvested area (-14.8% to 6.3 million acres). As a result, barley production is expected to rise by 35.5% year over year to 9.4 million MT in 2022.
Oat production is projected to rise by 65.7% to 4.7 million MT. Harvested area is expected to increase by 10.6% to 3.2 million acres, and yields are expected to rise by 50.0% year over year to 93.9 bushels per acre in 2022.
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