Winter Wheat Yields Improve From June

WASHINGTON - Jul 12/22 - SNS -- Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.20 billion bushels, up 2% from the June 1 forecast but down 6% from 2021, according to the USDA's latest crop production estimates.

As of July 1, the United States yield is forecast at 48.0 bushels per acre, down 0.2 bushel from last month and down 2.2 bushels from last year's average yield of 50.2 bushels per acre. Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 25.0 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2022, but down 2% from last year.

Hard Red Winter production, at 585 million bushels, is up 1% from last month. Soft Red Winter, at 376 million bushels, is up 5% from the June forecast. White Winter, at 240 million bushels, is down 1% from last month. Of the White Winter production, 15.1 million bushels are Hard White and 225 million bushels are Soft White.

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the six Hard Red Winter States (Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas) are below last year's levels in all six States. As of July 3, harvest progress was behind normal in Colorado. Harvest had not yet begun in Montana as of July 3, 2022.

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the three Soft Red Winter States (Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio) are above last year's levels in Missouri, but below last year's levels in Illinois and Ohio. As of July 3, harvest progress was eight, eleven, and fifteen percentage points ahead of the 5-year average pace in Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio, respectively.

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in Washington are above last year. Roughly 70% of the Washington acreage was rated in good to excellent condition as of July 3, 2022, compared to 20% on July 4, 2021.

Winter Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2021 and
Forecasted July 1, 2022
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                :  Area harvested   :       Yield per acre       :      Production
                :------------------------------------------------------------------------
      State     :         :         :        :       2022        :           :
                :  2021   :  2022   :  2021  :-------------------:   2021    :   2022
                :         :         :        : June 1  : July 1  :           :
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :    1,000 acres       ------- bushels -------     --- 1,000 bushels ---
                :
Arkansas .......:    145       170     58.0     57.0      58.0         8,410       9,860
California .....:     80       120     82.0     73.0      43.0         6,560       5,160
Colorado .......:  1,880     1,650     37.0     28.0      27.0        69,560      44,550
Idaho ..........:    640       720     71.0     94.0      91.0        45,440      65,520
Illinois .......:    610       720     79.0     78.0      79.0        48,190      56,880
Indiana ........:    270       250     85.0     78.0      82.0        22,950      20,500
Kansas .........:  7,000     6,850     52.0     39.0      39.0       364,000     267,150
Kentucky .......:    350       400     87.0     79.0      77.0        30,450      30,800
Maryland .......:    160       175     79.0     78.0      79.0        12,640      13,825
Michigan .......:    560       425     81.0     79.0      79.0        45,360      33,575
                :
Mississippi ....:     70        75     59.0     53.0      53.0         4,130       3,975
Missouri .......:    490       660     65.0     71.0      63.0        31,850      41,580
Montana ........:  1,730     1,900     31.0     33.0      34.0        53,630      64,600
Nebraska .......:    840       860     49.0     41.0      37.0        41,160      31,820
North Carolina .:    345       395     56.0     65.0      67.0        19,320      26,465
North Dakota ...:     60        90     33.0     47.0      58.0         1,980       5,220
Ohio ...........:    515       480     85.0     76.0      76.0        43,775      36,480
Oklahoma .......:  2,950     2,700     39.0     27.0      27.0       115,050      72,900
Oregon .........:    705       715     45.0     62.0      65.0        31,725      46,475
South Dakota ...:    720       760     38.0     47.0      54.0        27,360      41,040
                :
Tennessee ......:    330       365     71.0     73.0      71.0        23,430      25,915
Texas ..........:  2,000     1,300     37.0     31.0      27.0        74,000      35,100
Virginia .......:    120       170     67.0     64.0      64.0         8,040      10,880
Washington .....:  1,690     1,790     42.0     73.0      73.0        70,980     130,670
Wisconsin ......:    245       260     75.0     73.0      76.0        18,375      19,760
                :
Other States 1/ :    959     1,002     61.5     57.6      59.9        59,000      59,991
                :
United States ..: 25,464    25,002     50.2     48.2      48.0     1,277,365   1,200,691
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1/ Other States include Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York,
   Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Utah, and Wyoming. Individual State level estimates will
   be published in the "Small Grains 2022 Summary."