STAT Communications Ag Market News

Improved Cotton Outlook

WASHINGTON - Sep 10/21 - SNS - All cotton production in the United States is forecast at 18.5 million 480-pound bales, up 7% from the previous forecast and up 27% from 2020, according to the latest USDA production estimates.

Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 895 pounds per harvested acre, up 95 pounds from the previous forecast and up 48 pounds from 2020.

Upland cotton production is forecast at 18.2 million 480-pound bales, up 8% from the previous forecast and up 29% from 2020. Pima cotton production is forecast at 335,000 bales, down 10% from the previous forecast and down 39% from 2020.

All cotton planted area totaled 11.2 million acres, down 5% from the previous forecast and down 7% from 2020. All cotton area harvested is forecast at 9.92 million acres, down 4% from the previous forecast but up 20% from 2020. Acreage updates were made in several States based on a thorough review of all available data.

Cotton Area Planted and Harvested by Type - States and United States: 2020 and 2021
[Includes updates to planted and harvested area previously published]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :           Area planted            :          Area harvested
       State      :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :      2020       :      2021       :      2020       :     2021 1/
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :                              1,000 acres
                  :
Upland            :
Alabama ..........:       450.0             405.0             446.0             400.0
Arizona ..........:       125.0             120.0             123.0             119.0
Arkansas .........:       525.0             475.0             520.0             470.0
California .......:        34.0              25.0              33.5              24.5
Florida ..........:        98.0              91.0              93.0              89.0
Georgia ..........:     1,190.0           1,170.0           1,180.0           1,160.0
Kansas ...........:       195.0             110.0             184.0             101.0
Louisiana ........:       170.0             110.0             165.0             105.0
Mississippi ......:       530.0             445.0             525.0             430.0
Missouri .........:       295.0             315.0             287.0             310.0
                  :
New Mexico .......:        43.0              36.0              26.0              28.0
North Carolina ...:       360.0             370.0             330.0             350.0
Oklahoma .........:       525.0             485.0             435.0             415.0
South Carolina ...:       190.0             210.0             179.0             205.0
Tennessee ........:       280.0             275.0             275.0             270.0
Texas ............:     6,800.0           6,350.0           3,200.0           5,250.0
Virginia .........:        80.0              74.0              79.0              73.0
                  :
United States ....:    11,890.0          11,066.0           8,080.5           9,799.5
                  :
American Pima     :
Arizona ..........:         6.5               9.0               6.5               9.0
California .......:       147.0              86.0             146.0              85.0
New Mexico .......:        10.5              12.5              10.5              12.2
Texas ............:        38.0              17.0              31.0              16.0
                  :
United States ....:       202.0             124.5             194.0             122.2
                  :
All               :
Alabama ..........:       450.0             405.0             446.0             400.0
Arizona ..........:       131.5             129.0             129.5             128.0
Arkansas .........:       525.0             475.0             520.0             470.0
California .......:       181.0             111.0             179.5             109.5
Florida ..........:        98.0              91.0              93.0              89.0
Georgia ..........:     1,190.0           1,170.0           1,180.0           1,160.0
Kansas ...........:       195.0             110.0             184.0             101.0
Louisiana ........:       170.0             110.0             165.0             105.0
Mississippi ......:       530.0             445.0             525.0             430.0
Missouri .........:       295.0             315.0             287.0             310.0
                  :
New Mexico .......:        53.5              48.5              36.5              40.2
North Carolina ...:       360.0             370.0             330.0             350.0
Oklahoma .........:       525.0             485.0             435.0             415.0
South Carolina ...:       190.0             210.0             179.0             205.0
Tennessee ........:       280.0             275.0             275.0             270.0
Texas ............:     6,838.0           6,367.0           3,231.0           5,266.0
Virginia .........:        80.0              74.0              79.0              73.0
                  :
United States ....:    12,092.0          11,190.5           8,274.5           9,921.7
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Forecasted.
Cotton Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type - States and United States: 2020 and
Forecasted September 1, 2021
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :  Area harvested   :         Yield per acre         :    Production 1/
                 :--------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Type and State :         :         :        :         2021          :          :
                 :  2020   :  2021   :  2020  :-----------------------:   2020   :   2021
                 :         :         :        : August 1  :September 1:          :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 : -- 1,000 acres --   ---------- pounds ----------        1,000 bales 2/
                 :
Upland           :
Alabama .........:   446.0     400.0     790        924         924        734.0      770.0
Arizona .........:   123.0     119.0   1,179      1,238       1,250        302.0      310.0
Arkansas ........:   520.0     470.0   1,179      1,161       1,174      1,277.0    1,150.0
California ......:    33.5      24.5   2,006      1,884       1,900        140.0       97.0
Florida .........:    93.0      89.0     532        764         809        103.0      150.0
Georgia .........: 1,180.0   1,160.0     887        928         910      2,180.0    2,200.0
Kansas ..........:   184.0     101.0     783      1,168       1,069        300.0      225.0
Louisiana .......:   165.0     105.0     986      1,002       1,097        339.0      240.0
Mississippi .....:   525.0     430.0   1,079      1,142       1,150      1,180.0    1,030.0
Missouri ........:   287.0     310.0   1,144      1,228       1,316        684.0      850.0
                 :
New Mexico ......:    26.0      28.0   1,052        960         977         57.0       57.0
North Carolina ..:   330.0     350.0     759        795         809        522.0      590.0
Oklahoma ........:   435.0     415.0     702        743         856        636.0      740.0
South Carolina ..:   179.0     205.0     802        911         948        299.0      405.0
Tennessee .......:   275.0     270.0   1,066      1,031       1,049        611.0      590.0
Texas ...........: 3,200.0   5,250.0     686        620         786      4,570.0    8,600.0
Virginia ........:    79.0      73.0     772      1,068       1,118        127.0      170.0
                 :
United States ...: 8,080.5   9,799.5     835        794         890     14,061.0   18,174.0
                 :
American Pima    :
Arizona .........:     6.5       9.0   1,034        840         853         14.0       16.0
California ......:   146.0      85.0   1,562      1,430       1,519        475.0      269.0
New Mexico ......:    10.5      12.2     663        960         787         14.5       20.0
Texas ...........:    31.0      16.0     666        914         900         43.0       30.0
                 :
United States ...:   194.0     122.2   1,352      1,281       1,316        546.5      335.0
                 :
All              :
Alabama .........:   446.0     400.0     790        924         924        734.0      770.0
Arizona .........:   129.5     128.0   1,171      1,214       1,223        316.0      326.0
Arkansas ........:   520.0     470.0   1,179      1,161       1,174      1,277.0    1,150.0
California ......:   179.5     109.5   1,645      1,560       1,604        615.0      366.0
Florida .........:    93.0      89.0     532        764         809        103.0      150.0
Georgia .........: 1,180.0   1,160.0     887        928         910      2,180.0    2,200.0
Kansas ..........:   184.0     101.0     783      1,168       1,069        300.0      225.0
Louisiana .......:   165.0     105.0     986      1,002       1,097        339.0      240.0
Mississippi .....:   525.0     430.0   1,079      1,142       1,150      1,180.0    1,030.0
Missouri ........:   287.0     310.0   1,144      1,228       1,316        684.0      850.0
                 :
New Mexico ......:    36.5      40.2     940        960         919         71.5       77.0
North Carolina ..:   330.0     350.0     759        795         809        522.0      590.0
Oklahoma ........:   435.0     415.0     702        743         856        636.0      740.0
South Carolina ..:   179.0     205.0     802        911         948        299.0      405.0
Tennessee .......:   275.0     270.0   1,066      1,031       1,049        611.0      590.0
Texas ...........: 3,231.0   5,266.0     685        621         787      4,613.0    8,630.0
Virginia ........:    79.0      73.0     772      1,068       1,118        127.0      170.0
                 :
United States ...: 8,274.5   9,921.7     847        800         895     14,607.5   18,509.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-pound net weight bale.
Cottonseed Production - United States: 2020 and Forecasted September 1, 2021
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :                        Production
      State      :-----------------------------------------------------------
                 :            2020             :           2021 1/
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :                        1,000 tons
                 :
United States ...:           4,509.0                       5,645.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

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