StatsCan Changing Crop Report Method

OTTAWA - Jul 29/21 - SNS -- Statistics Canada is changing how it estimates yields and production in its August 30 crop report. It may still include survey data from farmers along with "modelled yield and production estimates for field crops in Canada based on data up to the end of July.

"Model-based principal field crop estimates are calculated according to an approach developed by Statistics Canada in close partnership with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. These yield estimates are based on a model that incorporates coarse resolution satellite data from Statistics Canada's Crop Condition Assessment Program, data from Statistics Canada's field crop reporting series, and agroclimatic data."

In reporting the change, the federal agency noted that record-high temperatures and lack of rainfall have stressed crops. Field reports "indicate that some crops have matured faster than normal, or stagnated in their development. The longer these conditions persist, the greater the negative impact will be on crop and hay yields, grain quality."

A large proportion of crop production in Canada occurs on the Prairies where farmers have faced challenging weather and soil moisture conditions so far this year. Western Canada experienced above-average temperatures for the last month that progressively intensified from Manitoba through to British Columbia.

Since April 1, most of the Prairies received from 40% to 85% of average precipitation since the beginning of the growing season, while the interior of British Columbia has received less than 40% of average precipitation. "The concern expressed by many farm operators is that the current drought conditions have hit at the worst time of crop development. In canola, for example, flowering can become heat stressed beyond 30°C which can lead to smaller or aborted pods, fewer seeds per pod and ultimately lower yields," Statistics Canada said.

The agency said it monitors crop conditions on a weekly basis using coarse resolution satellite imagery as part of the Crop Condition Assessment Program (CCAP), which is funded by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. The CCAP uses the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to monitor changing crop and pasture conditions. Based on the NDVI, for the week of July 19 to 25, 2021, growing conditions are lower to much lower for most of the Prairies and British Columbia compared with normal.

With the CCAP, the geographic extent of crop conditions and the degree of change by region can be compared with the normal for any region of Canada. When the current NDVI value is higher than the average, crops are greener with higher leaf volume, and when the NDVI value is below the average, crops are less green and have lower leaf volume.

For example, crop conditions in the regions south of Calgary are below last year and below the long-term average, indicating that the drought is now having an impact on the quality of crops in that area. A similar situation can be found for many other regions of Western Canada.

Statistics Canada said in some regions crop conditions are similar to those during the 2002 drought. According to the NDVI, the crop conditions this year are equivalent to or lower than 2002 in the extreme southwestern part of Saskatchewan and southern Alberta.

In Eastern Canada, NDVI values for 2021 are similar to the normal from Ottawa to Montreal, lower than normal from Trois-Rivieres to Quebec, but lower to much lower than normal for the Niagara Falls–Port Huron–Owen Sound region of Ontario. The Maritimes are, for the most part, experiencing a normal year based on the NDVI values.

Statistics Canada believes that despite the heat and lack of rain in parts of the country, the situation could still improve if cooler temperatures and rain come in time to mitigate the decline in yields and quality.

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