STAT Communications Ag Market News

Overall Grain Stocks Down

OTTAWA - Feb 5/21 - SNS -- Despite higher production levels, inventories of all grains and oilseeds as of December 31 were down from year earlier levels, reports Statistics Canada.

Overall, rising grain movements due to increased demand have resulted in lower stocks for field crops. Movements of grain by rail hit record high levels for the first five months of the 2020-21 crop year as demand for Canadian grains and oilseeds increased. The COVID-19 pandemic decreased demand for petroleum products moved by rail car, allowing grain movements to rise due to increased capacity.

The data for stocks was based on a survey of about 8,600 Canadian farmers between December 14 and January 15. Data on commercial stocks of western major crops originate from the Canadian Grain Commission. Data on commercial stocks of special crops originate from a survey of handlers and agents of special crops.

Exports Slash Pulse Stocks

Total stocks of dry peas were down 3.6% year over year to 2.6 million metric tons (MT) as of December 31. On farm stocks fell 8.1% to 2.2 million MT, offsetting a 37.9% increase in commercial stocks to 360 300 MT.

Total stocks of lentils were down 23.3% to 1.8 million MT. On-farm stocks declined 24.5% to 1.7 million MT, while commercial stocks fell 8.8% to 164 600 MT.

Total stocks of wheat were down 3.8% year over year to 24.8 million MT as of December 31. Commercial stocks were down 14.4% to 3.8 million MT, largely due to a 28.1% increase in exports to 11.2 million MT. On-farm stocks decreased 1.6% to 21.1 million MT.

Producer deliveries reached a record high 14.4 million MT in 2020, up 15.9% from a year earlier as deliveries of both wheat excluding durum (+14.3%) and durum (+23.3%) increased, pushing on-farm stocks for total wheat down.

Demand Reduces Oilseed Inventories

Canola stocks were down 23.7% year over year to 12.1 million MT as of December 31. On-farm stocks fell 26.6% to 10.3 million MT, the lowest level for this period since 2012. The decline in on-farm stocks was attributable to low beginning stocks on farm (-43.2%) and production for the 2020 crop year (-4.5%), combined with higher deliveries (+14.4%). Commercial stocks declined 1.9% to 1.9 million MT.

Soybean stocks fell 9.0% year over year to 3.7 million MT as of December 31. The decrease in on-farm stocks (-19.9% to 2.1 million MT) more than offset the rise in commercial stocks (+11.0% to 1.6 million MT).

Strong global demand for soybeans led to a 44.4% increase in exports to 2.9 million MT, more than offsetting a 31.1% decrease in domestic use.

Strong worldwide demand, partially due to an increase in global vegetable oil consumption, helped push canola exports up 51.5% year over year to a record high 5.2 million MT. Exports to China, Mexico and the United Arab Emirates were all up sharply from a year earlier. Industrial use, mainly canola crush, rose 3.8% to 4.4 million MT.

Corn Stocks Up, Barley Down

Total stocks of corn for grain rose 3.3% year over year to 11.1 million MT as of December 31. Commercial stocks rose 11.8% to 3.0 million MT, while on-farm stocks edged up 0.5% to 8.1 million MT.

Stocks of barley decreased 4.6% year over year to 5.7 million MT as of December 31. On-farm stocks were down 5.8% to 5.2 million MT, while commercial stocks rose 11.6% to 450 600 MT.

Deliveries of barley off-farm rose by over one-quarter (+26.5%) to 2.7 million MT, the highest volume for this period since 2007, contributing to the decrease in on-farm stocks. Domestic use, largely for feed, rose 5.7% to 4.3 million MT. Exports climbed 44.7% to 1.8 million MT, mostly destined for China.

Stocks of oats edged up 0.4% year over year to 2.7 million MT as of December 31. On-farm stocks fell 0.2% to 2.4 million MT, while commercial stocks rose 5.9% to 304 800 MT.

Domestic disappearance rose by 9.6% to 828 600 MT, largely due to higher feed use.

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