STAT Communications Ag Market News

Grains and Pulses Lead Production Gains

OTTAWA - Sep 14/20 - SNS -- Canadian lentil, pea, wheat, corn for grain, soybeans, and oats production is expected to be up over last year, according to Statistics Canada's recent yield models using satellite technology.

"Farmers on parts of the Prairies have had to contend with excessive rain and lower than average temperatures in the early part of the summer and above average temperatures in August, while it has been hot and dry throughout southern Ontario and the Maritimes. These variable weather conditions have put downward pressure on some of the yield estimates.

"The Crop Condition Assessment Program data published by Statistics Canada indicate that overall plant health in the Prairie provinces was equal to or much higher than normal for most of the region. Conversely, plant health in Eastern Canada is, for the most part, average, likely due in part to the lack of rain," Statistics Canada said.

Pulse Output Up

Projected gains in lentils, field peas and dry edible beans more than offset an expected drop in chickpea output.

Statistics Canada pegged the lentil harvest at 3.065 million metric tons (MT), up 32.4% from last year's 2.242 million MT crop.¨Pea output advanced 2.9% from 4.236 to 4.36 million MT. This year's dry edible bean harvest is expected to reach 364,000 MT, up 15.1% from 317,000 last year; while chickpea production is expected to drop 4.9% from 252,000 to 239,000 MT.

For other special crops, Statistics Canada expects canaryseed output to decline 9.2% from last year's 175,000 MT official estimate to 159,000. Mustard seed production is expected to plunge 23.8% from 135,000 to 103,000 MT. Sunflower output is seen advancing from 63,000 to 95,000 MT.

Canola Output Down, Soybean Up

Nationally, canola production is expected to fall 0.4% to 19.4 million MT in 2020, with higher yields (+1.2% to 41.6 bushels per acre) and lower harvested area (-1.6% to 20.6 million acres).

Saskatchewan, the largest canola producing province, is expected to produce 7.7% less canola in 2020, at 10.1 million MT. Yields are projected to decrease 3.9% to 39.6 bushels per acre, while harvested area is expected to fall 3.9%.

In Alberta, yield is expected to rise 12.7% to 45.4 bushels per acre and harvested area to fall 0.3% to 5.8 million acres, resulting in a 12.4% production increase.

Canola production in Manitoba is expected to increase 3.5% to 3.2 million MT. The projected decrease in yields (-0.7% to 41.7 bushels per acre) is expected to marginally offset the increase in harvested area (+4.3% to 3.3 million acres).

Soybean production nationally is projected to increase 1.5% year over year to 6.1 million MT in 2020 despite lower harvested area (-12.5% to 4.9 million acres). Yields are expected to increase 15.9% to 45.9 bushels per acre.

Farmers in Ontario are projected to produce the same amount of soybeans in 2020 at 3.7 million MT. Harvested area is expected to fall 8.0% to 2.8 million acres, while yield is anticipated to rise 8.8% to 48.0 bushels per acre.

In Manitoba, soybean production is projected to increase 4.6% to 1.2 million MT in 2020. Harvested area is projected to decrease 19.7% to 1.1 million acres, likely attributable to Manitoba farmers reducing seeded area following several years of lower yields due to dry conditions. However, yields are projected to rise 30.1% year over year to 38.0 bushels per acre this year, reversing the trend.

In Quebec, soybean production is projected to increase 14.2% to 1.2 million MT on sharply higher yields (+16.9% to 49.8 bushels per acre), which will more than offset the projected 2.4% decrease in harvested area.

Higher Wheat Area and Yields

Nationally, wheat production is projected to increase 5.6% year over year to 34.1 million MT in 2020, on higher anticipated yields (+3.2% to 51.4 bushels per acre) and more harvested area (+2.3% to 24.4 million acres).

The increase in wheat area was largely attributable to durum wheat and winter wheat remaining after winterkill, which offset the expected decrease in spring wheat area.

Wheat yield in Saskatchewan is expected to increase 1.4% to 45.0 bushels per acre in 2020, while harvested area is projected to edge up 0.4%, resulting in a 1.9% production increase to 15.4 million MT.

Harvested area is expected to edge up 0.2% to 7.2 million acres in Alberta, while yields are anticipated to rise 4.4% to 54.6 bushels per acre to bring total wheat production up 4.6% year over year to 10.7 million MT.

Wheat production in Manitoba is projected to decline 0.6% to 4.9 million MT in 2020, the result of lower yields (-1.3% to 59.0 bushels per acre), despite an increase in harvested area (+0.8% to 3.1 million acres).

Wheat production in Ontario (the majority of which is winter wheat) is projected to rise by 65.0% year over year, to 2.5 million MT, on increased harvested acres (+53.1%) and yields (+7.8%). The expected increase in harvested area was attributable to less winterkill due to a mild winter in the province.

Mixed Outcomes For Coarse Grains

Nationally, corn for grain production is projected to rise 4.7% to 14.0 million MT in 2020, with the anticipated increase in yield (+8.3% to 159.4 bushels per acre) offsetting lower harvested area (-3.4% to 3.5 million acres).

In Ontario, the largest corn for grain producing province, production is expected to increase 1.8% to 8.8 million MT, on higher harvested area (+0.3% to 2.2 million acres) and yields (+1.5% to 160.8 bushels per acre).

Corn for grain production in Quebec is projected to rise 8.8% to 3.7 million MT. Yields in Quebec are expected to rise 15.3% to 163.1 bushels per acres, while harvested area is expected to fall 5.7% to 885,000 acres.

Barley production is expected to decline 1.2% year over year to 10.3 million MT in 2020, with lower yields (-2.4% to 69.1 bushels per acre) offsetting the increase in harvested area (+1.1% to 6.8 million acres).

Oat production is projected to rise 6.5% to 4.5 million MT. Harvested area is expected to increase 6.7% to 3.1 million acres and yields are expected to edge down by 0.2% year over year to 94.9 bushels per acre in 2020.

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