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Massive Jump In Australian Production

CANBERRA - Sep 8/20 - SNS -- An excellent growing season in most parts of Australian has resulted in a massive increase in grain, oilseed and pulse production over last year, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).

Total grain output is up 71.7% at just over 44 million metric tons (MT), while oilseed production is expected to climb 61.2% to 4.124 million, and the five major pulses 40.6% to 2.581 million MT.

The biggest overall jump was reported for wheat, with output almost doubling from 15.165 to 28.91 million MT, while barley production is expected to advance from 9.0 to 11.2 million MT, and canola from 2.329 to 3.417 million.

ABARES noted, "Favorable climatic conditions during spring are expected to support the ongoing development of winter crops and provide a good foundation for summer crops.

"The Bureau of Meteorology's latest three-month climate outlook (September to November), issued on 3 September 2020, indicates spring rainfall is likely to be above average in most cropping regions. However, there are roughly equal chances of higher or lower than average spring rainfall in most cropping regions in Western Australia and below average spring rainfall is most likely in the Geraldton zone and part of the Kwinana zone."

Gains Extend Into Summer Crops

Winter crop production in Australia is forecast to increase 64% to 47.9 million MT, 20% above the 10-year average to 2019-20 of 40 million MT. Around 60% of the forecast increase in production is from increased production in New South Wales.

This is an 8% upward revision from the ABARES June 2020 forecast and reflects better than expected crop development during winter. Area planted to winter crops in 2020-21 is estimated to have increased by 23% from the drought affected season in 2019-20.

Area planted to summer crops in 2020-21 is forecast to rise by 194% to around 1 million hectares, 11% below the 10-year average to 2019-20 of 1.2 million hectares.

Summer crop production is forecast to rise by 259% to 3.2 million MT, reflecting the expected increase in planted area and an assumed return to average yields from the historically low yields in 2019-20.

Area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to rise by 316% in 2020-21 to 595,000 hectares, 13% above the 10-year average to 2019-20 of 525,000 hectares.

This forecast increase reflects the favorable outlook for seasonal conditions during spring, favorable grain sorghum prices and the availability of fallow land in summer cropping regions. Assuming average yields, grain sorghum production is forecast to rise by 480% to around 1.7 million MT, which is 12% above the 10-year average to 2019-20 of 1.5 million MT.

Area planted to cotton is forecast to rise by 300% in 2020-21 to 239,000 hectares, 40% below the 10-year average to 2019-20. Area planted to irrigated cotton is forecast to rise due to a significant increase in the supply of irrigation water.

Area planted to dryland cotton is forecast to increase significantly to 66,000 hectares, which reflects the favorable outlook for seasonal conditions in spring. Increasing area planted to rice and grain sorghum is expected to constrain the increases in area planted to irrigated and dryland cotton.

Area planted to rice is forecast to increase by 392% to around 27,000 hectares because of higher water allocations compared to the drought affected allocations in the last two years.

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