Winter Wheat Yields Shrinking

WASHINGTON - Jul 10/20 - SNS -- Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.22 billion bushels, down 4% from the June 1 forecast and down 7% from 2019, reports the USDA in its latest crop production estimates.

Hard Red Winter production, at 710 million bushels, is down 4% from last month. Soft Red Winter, at 280 million bushels, is down 6% from the June forecast. White Winter, at 227 million bushels, is up 1% from last month. Of the White Winter production, 15.5 million bushels are Hard White and 212 million bushels are Soft White.

Based on July 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 52.0 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushel from last month and down 1.6 bushels from last year's average yield of 53.6 bushels per acre. If realized, this will be the third highest yield on record. The area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 23.4 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2020, but down 4% from last year. A record high yield is forecast in Oklahoma for 2020.

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the six Hard Red Winter States (Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas) are above last year's levels in Oklahoma, but below last year's level in Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, and Texas. As of June 28, harvest progress was at or ahead of normal in Colorado, Oklahoma, and Texas but behind normal in Kansas and Nebraska. Harvest had not yet begun in Montana as of June 28, 2020.

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the three Soft Red Winter States (Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio) are above last year's levels in Illinois and Ohio but below last year's level in Missouri. As of June 28, harvest progress in the Soft Red Winter (SRW) growing area was equal to the 5-year average pace in Illinois but behind the 5-year average pace in Missouri and Ohio.

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in Washington are above last year.

Winter Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2019 and
Forecasted July 1, 2020
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :  Area harvested   :       Yield per acre       :      Production
                :------------------------------------------------------------------------
      State     :         :         :        :       2020        :           :
                :  2019   :  2020   :  2019  :-------------------:   2019    :   2020
                :         :         :        : June 1  : July 1  :           :
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :    1,000 acres       ------- bushels -------     --- 1,000 bushels ---
                :
Arkansas .......:     50        75     52.0     56.0      56.0         2,600       4,200
California .....:    100        90     50.0     54.0      85.0         5,000       7,650
Colorado .......:  2,000     1,550     49.0     38.0      33.0        98,000      51,150
Idaho ..........:    680       670     87.0     87.0      90.0        59,160      60,300
Illinois .......:    550       500     67.0     73.0      68.0        36,850      34,000
Indiana ........:    260       310     62.0     71.0      70.0        16,120      21,700
Kansas .........:  6,500     6,400     52.0     49.0      48.0       338,000     307,200
Kentucky .......:    330       375     76.0     73.0      63.0        25,080      23,625
Maryland .......:    165       190     75.0     70.0      72.0        12,375      13,680
Michigan .......:    480       480     71.0     81.0      80.0        34,080      38,400
                :
Mississippi ....:     21        20     47.0     47.0      43.0           987         860
Missouri .......:    390       390     63.0     65.0      63.0        24,570      24,570
Montana ........:  1,900     1,450     50.0     50.0      49.0        95,000      71,050
Nebraska .......:    970       850     57.0     51.0      48.0        55,290      40,800
North Carolina .:    225       380     56.0     60.0      61.0        12,600      23,180
North Dakota ...:     70        35     53.0     40.0      40.0         3,710       1,400
Ohio ...........:    385       480     56.0     76.0      75.0        21,560      36,000
Oklahoma .......:  2,750     2,700     40.0     38.0      42.0       110,000     113,400
Oregon .........:    730       730     68.0     58.0      60.0        49,640      43,800
South Dakota ...:    770       580     52.0     52.0      51.0        40,040      29,580
                :
Tennessee ......:    215       230     67.0     66.0      61.0        14,405      14,030
Texas ..........:  2,050     2,100     34.0     33.0      32.0        69,700      67,200
Virginia .......:    105       165     62.0     61.0      61.0         6,510      10,065
Washington .....:  1,700     1,650     70.0     74.0      74.0       119,000     122,100
Wisconsin ......:    150       120     64.0     71.0      70.0         9,600       8,400
                :
Other States 1/ :    781       919     56.5     52.8      53.8        44,126      49,444
                :
United States ..: 24,327    23,439     53.6     52.1      52.0     1,304,003   1,217,784
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Other States include Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York,
   Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Utah, and Wyoming. Individual State level estimates will
   be published in the "Small Grains 2020 Summary."