Lower Soybean Yields Forecast



WASHINGTON - Oct 10/19 - SNS -- Soybean production for beans is forecast at 3.55 billion bushels, down 2% from the previous forecast and down 20% from last year, according to the USDA's latest crop production estimates.

Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 46.9 bushels per acre, down 1.0 bushel from the previous forecast and down 3.7 bushels from 2018.

Area harvested for beans in the United States is forecast at 75.6 million acres, down less than 1% from the previous forecast and down 14% from 2018. Acreage updates were made in several States based on a thorough review of all available data.

Acreage updates were made in several States based on a thorough review of all available data. Planted area, at 76.5 million acres, is down less than 1% from the previous estimate. Harvested area is forecast at 75.6 million acres, down less than 1% from the previous forecast and down 14% from 2018.

The October objective yield data for the combined 11 major soybean-producing States (Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, and South Dakota) indicate a lower pod count compared to the previous year. Compared with final counts for 2018, pod counts are down in 10 of the 11 published States. A decrease of more than 400 pods per 18 square feet from 2018's final pod count is expected in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, and South Dakota.

Soybeans for Beans Area Planted and Harvested - States and United States: 2018 and 2019
[Includes updates to planted and harvested area previously published]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :           Area planted            :          Area harvested
       State      :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :      2018       :      2019       :      2018       :     2019 1/
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :                              1,000 acres
                  :
Alabama ..........:        345               270               335               265
Arkansas .........:      3,270             2,650             3,210             2,600
Delaware .........:        170               155               168               153
Florida 2/ .......:         18              (NA)                12              (NA)
Georgia ..........:        145               100               130                95
Illinois .........:     10,800            10,000            10,500             9,940
Indiana ..........:      6,000             5,400             5,960             5,370
Iowa .............:      9,950             9,200             9,830             9,130
Kansas ...........:      4,750             4,600             4,690             4,540
Kentucky .........:      1,950             1,700             1,930             1,690
                  :
Louisiana ........:      1,340               890             1,190               860
Maryland .........:        530               480               515               475
Michigan .........:      2,330             1,750             2,310             1,720
Minnesota ........:      7,750             6,900             7,650             6,820
Mississippi ......:      2,230             1,650             2,190             1,620
Missouri .........:      5,850             5,100             5,780             5,030
Nebraska .........:      5,650             5,000             5,590             4,950
New Jersey .......:        110                97               107                95
New York .........:        335               235               325               230
North Carolina ...:      1,650             1,550             1,570             1,530
                  :
North Dakota .....:      6,900             5,600             6,840             5,550
Ohio .............:      5,050             4,300             5,020             4,270
Oklahoma .........:        640               460               600               440
Pennsylvania .....:        640               630               630               625
South Carolina ...:        390               340               330               330
South Dakota .....:      5,650             3,600             5,580             3,560
Tennessee ........:      1,700             1,400             1,670             1,380
Texas ............:        175                80               135                68
Virginia .........:        600               570               590               560
West Virginia 2/ .:         29              (NA)                27              (NA)
Wisconsin ........:      2,220             1,750             2,180             1,730
                  :
United States ....:     89,167            76,457            87,594            75,626
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.
1/   Forecasted.
2/   Estimates discontinued in 2019.
Soybeans for Beans Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2018
and Forecasted October 1, 2019
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :  Area harvested   :         Yield per acre          :    Production
                 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------
      State      :         :         :         :         2019          :         :
                 :  2018   :  2019   :  2018   :-----------------------:  2018   :  2019
                 :         :         :         :September 1: October 1 :         :
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :    1,000 acres       ---------- bushels ---------    -- 1,000 bushels --
                 :
Alabama .........:    335       265     40.0        44.0        40.0       13,400    10,600
Arkansas ........:  3,210     2,600     50.5        50.0        50.0      162,105   130,000
Delaware ........:    168       153     41.5        45.0        43.0        6,972     6,579
Florida 1/ ......:     12      (NA)     37.0        (NA)        (NA)          444      (NA)
Georgia .........:    130        95     39.5        33.0        28.0        5,135     2,660
Illinois ........: 10,500     9,940     63.5        53.0        51.0      666,750   506,940
Indiana .........:  5,960     5,370     57.5        49.0        48.0      342,700   257,760
Iowa ............:  9,830     9,130     56.0        54.0        53.0      550,480   483,890
Kansas ..........:  4,690     4,540     43.0        44.0        43.0      201,670   195,220
Kentucky ........:  1,930     1,690     51.0        53.0        49.0       98,430    82,810
                 :
Louisiana .......:  1,190       860     51.5        49.0        48.0       61,285    41,280
Maryland ........:    515       475     47.5        44.0        45.0       24,463    21,375
Michigan ........:  2,310     1,720     47.5        42.0        44.0      109,725    75,680
Minnesota .......:  7,650     6,820     49.0        45.0        44.0      374,850   300,080
Mississippi .....:  2,190     1,620     54.0        51.0        51.0      118,260    82,620
Missouri ........:  5,780     5,030     44.5        46.0        46.0      257,210   231,380
Nebraska ........:  5,590     4,950     58.0        58.0        56.0      324,220   277,200
New Jersey ......:    107        95     39.5        42.0        41.0        4,227     3,895
New York ........:    325       230     52.0        47.0        46.0       16,900    10,580
North Carolina ..:  1,570     1,530     33.0        38.0        37.0       51,810    56,610
                 :
North Dakota ....:  6,840     5,550     35.0        35.0        35.0      239,400   194,250
Ohio ............:  5,020     4,270     56.0        48.0        48.0      281,120   204,960
Oklahoma ........:    600       440     28.0        26.0        28.0       16,800    12,320
Pennsylvania ....:    630       625     44.5        48.0        50.0       28,035    31,250
South Carolina ..:    330       330     29.0        34.0        29.0        9,570     9,570
South Dakota ....:  5,580     3,560     45.0        44.0        43.0      251,100   153,080
Tennessee .......:  1,670     1,380     45.5        50.0        47.0       75,985    64,860
Texas ...........:    135        68     31.5        29.0        29.0        4,253     1,972
Virginia ........:    590       560     42.0        38.0        38.0       24,780    21,280
West Virginia 1/ :     27      (NA)     53.0        (NA)        (NA)        1,431      (NA)
Wisconsin .......:  2,180     1,730     48.0        47.0        46.0      104,640    79,580
                 :
United States ...: 87,594    75,626     50.6        47.9        46.9    4,428,150 3,550,281
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.
1/   Estimates discontinued in 2019.