Modest Hike in Winter Wheat

WASHINGTON - Jul 11/19 - SNS -- U.S. winter wheat production is forecast at 1.29 billion bushels, up 1% from the June 1 forecast and up 9% from 2018, according to the latest USDA production forecast for 2019.

As of July 1, the United States yield is forecast at 51.8 bushels per acre, up 1.3 bushels from last month and up 3.9 bushels from last year's average yield of 47.9 bushels per acre. The area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 24.9 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 28, 2019, but up 1% from last year.

Hard Red Winter production, at 804 million bushels, is up 1% from last month. Soft Red Winter, at 259 million bushels, is up less than 1% from the June forecast. White Winter, at 227 million bushels, is up 2% from last month. Of the White Winter production, 23.2 million bushels are Hard White and 204 million bushels are Soft White.

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the three Soft Red Winter States (Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio) are above last year's levels in Missouri but below last year's level in Illinois and Ohio. As of June 30, harvest progress in the Soft Red Winter (SRW) growing area was behind normal in all major producing States except Michigan where harvest had not yet begun.

Winter Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2018 and
Forecasted July 1, 2019
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :  Area harvested   :       Yield per acre       :      Production
                :------------------------------------------------------------------------
      State     :         :         :        :       2019        :           :
                :  2018   :  2019   :  2018  :-------------------:   2018    :   2019
                :         :         :        : June 1  : July 1  :           :
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :    1,000 acres       ------- bushels -------     --- 1,000 bushels ---
                :
Arkansas .......:     95        60     55.0     60.0      60.0         5,225       3,600
California .....:    110       135     77.0     65.0      65.0         8,470       8,775
Colorado .......:  1,950     2,150     36.0     41.0      44.0        70,200      94,600
Idaho ..........:    680       680     90.0     83.0      87.0        61,200      59,160
Illinois .......:    560       590     66.0     65.0      63.0        36,960      37,170
Indiana ........:    260       260     71.0     69.0      67.0        18,460      17,420
Kansas .........:  7,300     6,600     38.0     50.0      50.0       277,400     330,000
Kentucky .......:    300       320     66.0     77.0      77.0        19,800      24,640
Maryland .......:    200       165     63.0     67.0      75.0        12,600      12,375
Michigan .......:    470       490     76.0     74.0      75.0        35,720      36,750
                :
Mississippi ....:     30        20     49.0     52.0      52.0         1,470       1,040
Missouri .......:    520       470     59.0     56.0      60.0        30,680      28,200
Montana ........:  1,570     1,850     50.0     45.0      46.0        78,500      85,100
Nebraska .......:  1,010       970     49.0     50.0      53.0        49,490      51,410
North Carolina .:    370       225     57.0     56.0      53.0        21,090      11,925
North Dakota ...:     70        75     43.0     50.0      45.0         3,010       3,375
Ohio ...........:    450       420     75.0     63.0      64.0        33,750      26,880
Oklahoma .......:  2,500     2,750     28.0     37.0      38.0        70,000     104,500
Oregon .........:    695       730     67.0     57.0      58.0        46,565      42,340
South Dakota ...:    660       730     48.0     52.0      54.0        31,680      39,420
                :
Tennessee ......:    285       225     65.0     67.0      66.0        18,525      14,850
Texas ..........:  1,750     2,200     32.0     33.0      35.0        56,000      77,000
Virginia .......:    155       115     60.0     67.0      66.0         9,300       7,590
Washington .....:  1,650     1,660     76.0     69.0      70.0       125,400     116,200
Wisconsin ......:    200       170     71.0     65.0      66.0        14,200      11,220
                :
Other States 1/ :    902       864     53.5     52.4      52.2        48,244      45,086
                :
United States ..: 24,742    24,924     47.9     50.5      51.8     1,183,939   1,290,626
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1/ For 2018, Other States include Alabama, Arizona, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Iowa,
   Louisiana, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, South
   Carolina, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming. For 2019, Other States include Alabama,
   Delaware, Georgia, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, South Carolina,
   Utah, and Wyoming. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Small
   Grains 2019 Summary."