Models See Higher Yields Than Survey

OTTAWA - Sep 19/18 - SNS -- Statistics's Canada's model-based estimates for Canadian pulse production did not push yields in the direction some processors and exporters wanted to see.

Forecast yields for peas, lentils, chickpeas and dry edible beans were higher than indicated by farmers before the harvest got underway. Interestingly, the model-based production estimates for peas and lentils are closer to those suggested by provincial yield estimates than the August crop report.

Statistics Canada said the latest estimates are based on a model that incorporates coarse resolution satellite data from Statistics Canada's Crop Condition Assessment Program, data from Statistics Canada's field crop reporting series, and agroclimatic data. By contrast, the August and final crop reports are based on a direct survey of farmers.

The model suggests lentil output will be around 2.23 million metric tons (MT), up 3% from the August forecast. Provincial yield estimates suggest the crop could be nominally higher at around 2.25 million MT.

Field pea production was also pegged 3% higher than the August forecast, with the crop looking closer to 3.74 million MT, just above the provincial estimates of a 3.71 million MT harvest.

Statistics Canada remains significantly more optimistic about chickpea crop prospects than provincial agriculture departments. The model based approach suggests the crop could be 7% bigger than first thought at 282,800 MT; while provincial yield estimates point to a 202,400 MT harvest.

Dry edible beans are seeing the biggest overall changes, with the white bean harvest thought to be 31% higher at 82,400 MT and colored bean output 9% above the August forecast at 262,900 MT.

It is important to note there can be significant variation between initial production estimates and the final number. This reflects a variety of factors, including future updates to actual production levels from both Statistics Canada and sources such as provincial crop insurance data. However, history suggests the chances of crops being significantly smaller than initially forecast are not good.

                   September Production Versus Final Numbers
                                    (metric tons)
Production                  2014       2015       2016       2017       2018
Lentils                1,929,900  2,161,600  3,233,800  2,438,600  2,230,100
Dry Peas               3,558,000  3,155,500  4,611,100  3,861,600  3,735,100
Edible Bean              300,500    242,400    249,600    315,500    345,300
Chickpeas                142,500    100,900    116,900     86,000    282,800
Canaryseed               145,700    117,900    146,300    121,300    110,800
Mustard                  222,300    109,300    250,500    114,900    175,300
Sunflower                 78,200     90,700     53,500     52,300     58,400
Actual                      2014       2015       2016       2017       2018
Lentils                1,987,000  2,540,500  3,193,800  2,558,500        N/A
Dry Peas               3,810,100  3,200,700  4,835,900  4,112,200        N/A
Edible Bean              273,100    245,200    264,700    354,400        N/A
Chickpeas                129,100     89,900     91,200    118,600        N/A
Canaryseed               135,900    152,600    144,300    164,100        N/A
Mustard                  198,000    123,400    235,600    121,600        N/A
Sunflower                 55,000     72,600     50,600     57,600        N/A
Variation                   2014       2015       2016       2017   5-Yr Average
Lentils                       3%        18%        -1%         5%        11%
Dry Peas                      7%         1%         5%         6%         5%
Edible Bean                  -9%         1%         6%        12%         4%
Chickpeas                    -9%       -11%       -22%        38%         2%
Canaryseed                   -7%        29%        -1%        35%        28%
Mustard                     -11%        13%        -6%         6%         0%
Sunflower                   -30%       -20%        -5%        10%       -10%
SOURCE: Statistics Canada