Falling Yields Hurt Cotton



WASHINGTON - Sep 13/18 - SNS -- All cotton production in the United States is forecast at 19.7 million 480-pound bales, up 2% from August but down 6% from last year, according to the USDA's latest crop production estimates.

Yield is expected to average 895 pounds per harvested acre, down 16 pounds from last month and down 10 pounds from last year. Harvested area for all cotton is expected to total 10.6 million acres, down 5% from 2017. Upland cotton production is forecast at 18.9 million 480-pound bales, down 6% from 2017. Upland harvested area is expected to total 10.3 million acres, down 5% from last year. Pima cotton production, forecast at 771,000 bales, is up 10% from last year. Pima cotton harvested area, at 245,400 acres, is down 2% from 2017.

Acreage updates were made in several States based on a thorough review of all available data. Area planted to Upland cotton is estimated at 13.8 million acres, up 4% from the June estimate and up 12% from 2017. Upland planted area in Oklahoma will be highest since 1956 and Kansas planted area will be the highest on record. Harvested area for the Nation is expected to total 10.3 million acres, down 5% from last year. Pima cotton planted area is estimated at 248,000 acres, up 2% from June but down 2% from 2017. Expected harvested area, at 245,400 acres, is down 2% from the previous year.

Ginnings totaled 489,100 running bales prior to September 1, compared with 570,650 running bales ginned prior to the same date last year.

Cotton Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type - States and United States: 2017 and
Forecasted September 1, 2018
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                 :  Area harvested   :         Yield per acre         :    Production 1/
                 :--------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Type and State :         :         :        :         2018          :          :
                 :  2017   :  2018   :  2017  :-----------------------:   2017   :   2018
                 :         :         :        : August 1  :September 1:          :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :--- 1,000 acres --   ---------- pounds ----------        1,000 bales 2/
                 :
Upland           :
Alabama .........:   430.0     505.0     902      1,000       1,041        808.0    1,095.0
Arizona .........:   159.0     149.0   1,464      1,466       1,498        485.0      465.0
Arkansas ........:   438.0     480.0   1,177      1,112       1,150      1,074.0    1,150.0
California ......:    87.0      49.0   1,297      1,861       1,763        235.0      180.0
Florida .........:    98.0     116.0     759        935         910        155.0      220.0
Georgia .........: 1,270.0   1,420.0     841        967         946      2,225.0    2,800.0
Kansas ..........:    90.0     160.0   1,051      1,034       1,005        197.0      335.0
Louisiana .......:   217.0     190.0     894      1,070       1,061        404.0      420.0
Mississippi .....:   625.0     615.0   1,038      1,211       1,132      1,351.0    1,450.0
Missouri ........:   297.0     320.0   1,212      1,200       1,230        750.0      820.0
                 :
New Mexico ......:    46.0      65.0   1,179      1,182       1,108        113.0      150.0
North Carolina ..:   367.0     420.0     969        849         921        741.0      806.0
Oklahoma ........:   555.0     570.0     882        766         800      1,020.0      950.0
South Carolina ..:   248.0     298.0     912        930         886        471.0      550.0
Tennessee .......:   340.0     355.0   1,033      1,050       1,082        732.0      800.0
Texas ...........: 5,500.0   4,500.0     809        726         693      9,270.0    6,500.0
Virginia ........:    83.0      97.0   1,110      1,057       1,089        192.0      220.0
                 :
United States ...:10,850.0  10,309.0     895        895         881     20,223.0   18,911.0
                 :
American Pima    :
Arizona .........:    15.0      13.5     966        924         889         30.2       25.0
California ......:   215.0     209.0   1,407      1,654       1,610        630.0      701.0
New Mexico ......:     7.4       6.9     863        765         904         13.3       13.0
Texas ...........:    13.0      16.0     960        960         960         26.0       32.0
                 :
United States ...:   250.4     245.4   1,341      1,555       1,508        699.5      771.0
                 :
All              :
Alabama .........:   430.0     505.0     902      1,000       1,041        808.0    1,095.0
Arizona .........:   174.0     162.5   1,421      1,421       1,447        515.2      490.0
Arkansas ........:   438.0     480.0   1,177      1,112       1,150      1,074.0    1,150.0
California ......:   302.0     258.0   1,375      1,693       1,639        865.0      881.0
Florida .........:    98.0     116.0     759        935         910        155.0      220.0
Georgia .........: 1,270.0   1,420.0     841        967         946      2,225.0    2,800.0
Kansas ..........:    90.0     160.0   1,051      1,034       1,005        197.0      335.0
Louisiana .......:   217.0     190.0     894      1,070       1,061        404.0      420.0
Mississippi .....:   625.0     615.0   1,038      1,211       1,132      1,351.0    1,450.0
Missouri ........:   297.0     320.0   1,212      1,200       1,230        750.0      820.0
                 :
New Mexico ......:    53.4      71.9   1,135      1,142       1,088        126.3      163.0
North Carolina ..:   367.0     420.0     969        849         921        741.0      806.0
Oklahoma ........:   555.0     570.0     882        766         800      1,020.0      950.0
South Carolina ..:   248.0     298.0     912        930         886        471.0      550.0
Tennessee .......:   340.0     355.0   1,033      1,050       1,082        732.0      800.0
Texas ...........: 5,513.0   4,516.0     809        726         694      9,296.0    6,532.0
Virginia ........:    83.0      97.0   1,110      1,057       1,089        192.0      220.0
                 :
United States ...:11,100.4  10,554.4     905        911         895     20,922.5   19,682.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-pound net weight bale.
Cottonseed Production - United States: 2017 and Forecasted September 1, 2018
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :                        Production
      State      :-----------------------------------------------------------
                 :            2017             :           2018 1/
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :                        1,000 tons
                 :
United States ...:           6,422.0                       6,156.0
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1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.