Analyzing CGC Weekly Report



EDMONTON - May 1/18 - SNS-- The Canadian Grain Commission´s (CGC) weekly update on Canadian crop movement statistics provides important insight into which crops are in demand by exports, notes Neil Blue, provincial crop market analyst with Alberta Agriculture and Forestry.

The comparison between this season and last gives farmers "a good idea of what crops are moving and which ones are not moving well," says Blue. "It makes comparisons to the previous year that might affect marketing and pricing decisions."

Blue mentions that according to this report, despite difficulties in rail movement of crop in some areas this past winter, overall wheat exports are doing quite well to mid-April, or more than two thirds through this crop year.

"Producer deliveries of wheats to licensed facilities are now up about 400,000 metric tons (MT) compared to April 2017. So far, wheat exports are more than 1.5 million MT ahead of last yearÂ’s pace, with major increases in our wheat exports to Bangladesh, Indonesia, and China. Also, domestic disappearance of wheat is more than 1 million MT ahead of last year. These numbers may not be comforting to those producers in areas where delivery opportunity has been most limited, however movement in those areas is improving."

As for other major cereal crops, "Durum movement and exports are lower, mainly due to the country of origin labelling implemented on dried pasta sold in Italy," explains Blue. "Oat deliveries and exports are both up by more than 150,000 MT, helped by the larger 2017 Canadian oat crop and stronger U.S. demand. Barley exports are running 650,000 MT ahead of last year, with China imports making up most that increase and Japan the balance. Rye exports are also higher, with the U.S. as the major buyer."

"Pea exports are down by over 1.5 million MT on the lower exports to India after the tariff imposed in early November 2017, and there has also been a sharp drop in exports to Bangladesh," adds Blue. "This drop has been somewhat offset by a 200,000 tonne increase to China. Lentil exports are down by 450,000 MT, again with a drop to India and also Bangladesh."

Canola deliveries from farms are down by over half a million MT, and Blue finds that interesting, "Considering the estimate of a 1.7 million tonne larger canola crop last year. Canola exports so far are also down by almost half a million MT, even though exports to China are up again. Domestic canola disappearance, which is mainly crushing, is about even with year ago."