USDA Still Positive About Soy
WASHINGTON - Apr 10/18 - SNS -- Fears that China will impose import duties on U.S. soybeans were not reflected in the latest USDA supply and demand outlooks for the remainder of the 2017-18 marketing year.
By contrast, the USDA thinks exports will be unchanged from its previous forecast, while domestic crush is expected to improve because of strong demand for soybean meal, resulting in a reduction in forecast ending stocks from 555 to 550 million bushels.
On the other hand, the USDA left prospective plantings unchanged from the March 29 seeding intentions estimates. Farmers say they will reduce land in the crop by 1% to 89.0 million acres, with 20 of 31 states included in the estimates showing no change from last year.
Global oilseed production is lowered 5.7 million tons to 568.8 million, with a 6.1-million-ton reduction for soybean production and slightly higher projections for rapeseed, sunflowerseed, copra, and palm kernel.
Lower soybean production for Argentina, India, and Uruguay is partly offset by higher production for Brazil. Soybean production for Brazil is forecast at a record 115.0 million tons, up 2.0 million on higher projected yields for Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Parana due to beneficial rainfall during the growing season.
For Argentina, production is lowered 7.0 million tons to 40.0 million on reduced harvested area and yield, reflecting dry conditions during January through March. With reduced production, soybean crush for Argentina is lowered 1.8 million tons to 41.2 million, resulting in lower soybean meal and oil supplies traded globally.
Other oilseed production changes include reduced sunflower and peanut production for Argentina, higher sunflowerseed production for the European Union, and increased rapeseed production for Belarus.
Global oilseed trade for 2017/18 is projected at 174.1 million tons, down 0.6 million on lower soybean, peanut, and rapeseed shipments. Soybean exports are reduced 0.2 million tons as higher exports for Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine are offset by lower exports for Argentina and Uruguay. Peanut and rapeseed exports are lowered for Senegal and the European Union, respectively. Global soybean ending stocks are lowered 3.6 million tons to 90.8 million with reductions mainly for Argentina, Brazil, and the EU.