USDA Hikes Corn Estimate



WASHINGTON - Nov 9/17 - SNS -- This year's corn drop is now estimate dat 14.6 billion bushels, down 4% from last year but up 2% from the October forecast, according to the latest crop estimates from the USDA.

Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 175.4 bushels per acre, up 3.6 bushels from the October forecast and up 0.8 bushel from 2016. If realized, this will be the highest yield on record for the United States. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 83.1 million acres, unchanged from the previous estimate but down 4% from 2016.

The November 1 corn objective yield data indicate the third highest number of ears on record for the combined 10 objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin).

At 14.6 billion bushels, 2017 corn production is forecast to be the second highest production on record for the United States. The forecasted yield, at 175.4 bushels per acre, is expected to be the highest yield on record for the United States. Record yields are forecast for Alabama, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Tennessee.

Around 54% of this year's corn crop was harvested by October 29, well behind the previous year's 73% harvested and 5-year average of 72%. Harvest progress was behind normal on October 29 in all estimating States except Michigan, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas. Overall, 66% of the corn crop was reported in good to excellent condition on October 29, eight percentage points below the same time last year.

Corn for Grain Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2016 and
Forecasted November 1, 2017
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                 :  Area harvested   :          Yield per acre          :     Production
                 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------
      State      :         :         :          :         2017          :          :
                 :  2016   :  2017   :   2016   :-----------------------:   2016   :   2017
                 :         :         :          : October 1 :November 1 :          :
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :    1,000 acres       ---------- bushels ----------    --- 1,000 bushels ---
                 :
Alabama .........:    315       235     120.0       170.0       165.0        37,800     38,775
Arkansas ........:    745       595     171.0       179.0       179.0       127,395    106,505
California ......:    100       100     185.0       184.0       184.0        18,500     18,400
Colorado ........:  1,170     1,270     137.0       145.0       148.0       160,290    187,960
Delaware ........:    164       170     170.0       190.0       186.0        27,880     31,620
Georgia .........:    340       250     165.0       184.0       179.0        56,100     44,750
Idaho ...........:    100       100     188.0       210.0       210.0        18,800     21,000
Illinois ........: 11,450    11,050     197.0       192.0       198.0     2,255,650  2,187,900
Indiana .........:  5,470     5,220     173.0       173.0       181.0       946,310    944,820
Iowa ............: 13,500    12,900     203.0       191.0       197.0     2,740,500  2,541,300
                 :
Kansas ..........:  4,920     5,200     142.0       134.0       136.0       698,640    707,200
Kentucky ........:  1,400     1,240     159.0       174.0       177.0       222,600    219,480
Louisiana .......:    550       490     165.0       183.0       183.0        90,750     89,670
Maryland ........:    400       425     152.0       166.0       174.0        60,800     73,950
Michigan ........:  2,040     1,950     157.0       168.0       167.0       320,280    325,650
Minnesota .......:  8,000     7,650     193.0       184.0       190.0     1,544,000  1,453,500
Mississippi .....:    720       500     166.0       188.0       188.0       119,520     94,000
Missouri ........:  3,500     3,250     163.0       172.0       175.0       570,500    568,750
Nebraska ........:  9,550     9,300     178.0       181.0       179.0     1,699,900  1,664,700
New York ........:    570       530     129.0       147.0       147.0        73,530     77,910
                 :
North Carolina ..:    940       830     129.0       138.0       140.0       121,260    116,200
North Dakota ....:  3,270     3,190     158.0       126.0       134.0       516,660    427,460
Ohio ............:  3,300     3,130     159.0       173.0       173.0       524,700    541,490
Oklahoma ........:    350       320     121.0       123.0       130.0        42,350     41,600
Pennsylvania ....:    950       960     129.0       163.0       163.0       122,550    156,480
South Carolina ..:    350       325     127.0       135.0       137.0        44,450     44,525
South Dakota ....:  5,130     5,250     161.0       147.0       150.0       825,930    787,500
Tennessee .......:    830       705     151.0       170.0       171.0       125,330    120,555
Texas ...........:  2,550     2,190     127.0       142.0       142.0       323,850    310,980
Virginia ........:    340       340     148.0       152.0       154.0        50,320     52,360
Washington ......:     85        80     235.0       230.0       225.0        19,975     18,000
Wisconsin .......:  3,220     2,950     178.0       164.0       168.0       573,160    495,600
                 :
Other States 1/ .:    429       424     157.9       157.8       157.8        67,758     66,912
                 :
United States ...: 86,748    83,119     174.6       171.8       175.4    15,148,038 14,577,502
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1/ Other States include Arizona, Florida, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, West
   Virginia, and Wyoming. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop
   Production 2017 Summary."