STAT Communications Ag Market News

Production Estimate Battle Rages in India

DELHI - Jun 2/21 - SNS -- Significant differences of opinion persist between India's pulse trade and the government over the size of the country's 2020-21 pulse harvest.

The Indian Pulses and Grains Association (IPGA) believes production of the five main pulses is closer to 16.36 million metric tons (MT) than the 23 million estimated by the country's agriculture department.

Disagreement exists for all crops, though the largest differences of opinion are for chickpeas and pigeon peas. The trade thinks output was 8.5 million and 2.9 million respectively. The third advance estimate pegged output at 12.61 million for chickpeas and 4.14 million for tur or pigeon pea.

The truth likely lies somewhere between the two sets of numbers if only because proper surveys are not conducted in the country. Some states appear to try hard to come up with accurate production data. But given the fact production is spread across millions of farms with an average size around one hectare, it appears unimaginably difficult to come up with accurate surveys of both seeded area and yields.

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