STAT Communications Ag Market News

Grain Stocks Drop, Others Increase

OTTAWA - Sep 6/18 - SNS -- Season ending stocks of wheat and barley were down from the same date a year earlier, while stocks of canola, oats, dry peas and lentils increased, reports Statistics Canada.

On farm stock estimates were based on a survey of about 13,300 Canadian farmers between July 6 and August 1. Data on commercial stocks of western major crops originate from the Canadian Grain Commission. Data on commercial stocks of special crops originate from a survey of handlers and agents of special crops.

Total stocks of wheat were down 9.9% to 6.2 million metric tons (MT) compared with July 31, 2017. The decline was due to a 22.5% decrease in commercial stocks to 3.5 million MT. This was offset by a 15.0% increase in on-farm stocks (+347,000 MT).

Despite lower production, higher wheat quality in 2017-18 (as stated in the latest Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crop, published by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada) compared with the previous year contributed to increased exports, which could have lowered commercial stocks.

Total barley stocks were down 40.8% to 1.3 million MT as of July 31. Stocks held on-farm, which accounted for 81.4% of total stocks, fell 42.8% to 1.0 million MT. Meanwhile, commercial stocks declined 30.0% to 233 000 MT.

As of July 31, total stocks of oats were up 11.5% to 784 000 MT year over year. Increases in both on-farm (+6.3%) and commercial (+35.4%) stock levels led to the overall rise.


Canola and Pulse Stocks Rise

At the national level, canola stocks were up 78.2% to 2.4 million MT as of July 31, 2018. On-farm stocks, which are concentrated in the Prairie provinces, were behind the increase (+238.9% to 1.4 million MT). Commercial stocks were 3.9% higher compared with July 31, 2017, at 954 000 MT.

Canola production in 2017-18 reached a record high 21.3 million MT, while deliveries were down compared with the previous crop year, pushing up total stocks as of July 31, 2018.

Overall stocks of lentils totalled 876,000 MT as of July 31, 2018, up 561 000 MT (+178.1%) from the same date in 2017. The increase was due to higher farm stocks (+223.7%). Meanwhile, total stocks of dry peas rose 116.7% to 650,000 MT.

Increases as of July 31, 2018, could be attributable to higher import tariffs introduced by India. Exports of both dry peas and lentils as of July 31 were down substantially from the same date last year, with dry pea exports declining 21.1% to 3.1 million MT and lentil exports falling 36.8% to 1.6 million MT.

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