Winter Wheat Crop Down 9%

WASHINGTON - Jul 12/18 - SNS -- Winter wheat production in the U.S. is forecast at 1.19 billion bushels, down less than 1% from the June 1 forecast and down 6% from 2017, according to the USDA's latest crop production estimates.

Based on July 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 48.0 bushels per acre, down 0.4 bushel from last month and down 2.2 bushels from last year's average yield of 50.2 bushels per acre. The area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 24.8 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 29, 2018, but down 2% from last year. A record high yield is forecast in Montana for 2018.

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the six Hard Red Winter States (Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas) are below last year's final head count in all States except Texas. As of July 1, harvest progress was at or behind normal in all major Hard Red Winter (HRW) States except Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma.

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the three Soft Red Winter States (Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio) are above last year's levels in Illinois and Ohio but below last year's level in Missouri. As of July 1, harvest progress in the Soft Red Winter (SRW) growing area was ahead of normal in all major producing States except Michigan where harvest had not yet begun.

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in Washington are above last year. Eighty-two% of the Washington crop was rated in mostly good to excellent condition as of July 1.

Winter Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2017 and
Forecasted July 1, 2018
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :  Area harvested   :       Yield per acre       :      Production
                :------------------------------------------------------------------------
      State     :         :         :        :       2018        :           :
                :  2017   :  2018   :  2017  :-------------------:   2017    :   2018
                :         :         :        : June 1  : July 1  :           :
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :    1,000 acres       ------- bushels -------     --- 1,000 bushels ---
                :
Arkansas .......:    125       100     52.0     60.0      56.0         6,500       5,600
California .....:    155       150     64.0     83.0      78.0         9,920      11,700
Colorado .......:  2,020     2,050     43.0     40.0      37.0        86,860      75,850
Idaho ..........:    670       720     80.0     83.0      82.0        53,600      59,040
Illinois .......:    470       550     76.0     75.0      69.0        35,720      37,950
Indiana ........:    240       255     74.0     78.0      76.0        17,760      19,380
Kansas .........:  6,950     7,300     48.0     37.0      38.0       333,600     277,400
Kentucky .......:    310       350     77.0     80.0      65.0        23,870      22,750
Maryland .......:    185       200     71.0     68.0      64.0        13,135      12,800
Michigan .......:    425       500     79.0     90.0      85.0        33,575      42,500
                :
Mississippi ....:     25        35     58.0     62.0      59.0         1,450       2,065
Missouri .......:    540       530     68.0     65.0      64.0        36,720      33,920
Montana ........:  1,590     1,450     42.0     48.0      50.0        66,780      72,500
Nebraska .......:  1,020     1,000     46.0     45.0      48.0        46,920      48,000
North Carolina .:    375       390     55.0     55.0      55.0        20,625      21,450
North Dakota ...:     35        70     37.0     44.0      44.0         1,295       3,080
Ohio ...........:    435       450     74.0     79.0      79.0        32,190      35,550
Oklahoma .......:  2,900     2,200     34.0     26.0      25.0        98,600      55,000
Oregon .........:    690       710     63.0     54.0      54.0        43,470      38,340
South Dakota ...:    520       730     40.0     54.0      52.0        20,800      37,960
                :
Tennessee ......:    275       295     70.0     75.0      63.0        19,250      18,585
Texas ..........:  2,350     1,800     29.0     27.0      30.0        68,150      54,000
Virginia .......:    145       150     66.0     63.0      59.0         9,570       8,850
Washington .....:  1,650     1,650     73.0     73.0      76.0       120,450     125,400
Wisconsin ......:    170       220     68.0     70.0      68.0        11,560      14,960
                :
Other States 1/ :  1,021       976     55.9     55.9      59.4        57,067      57,955
                :
United States ..: 25,291    24,831     50.2     48.4      48.0     1,269,437   1,192,585
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Other States include Alabama, Arizona, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Louisiana,
   Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, South Carolina,
   Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Individual State level estimates will be published
   in the "Small Grains 2018 Summary."