StatsCan Stirs Deep Divisions

TOKYO - Aug 23/16 - SNS -- It would be unusual for a Statistics Canada report to not ruffle some feathers or result in some level of controversy within the special crop industry.

The August production estimates did more, laying bare the deep divisions within the trade about the size of this year's pulse crop. The debate is unlikely to end until it is certain the harvest will be able to advance without interruption, largely fixing yields, if not quality.

Ignoring soybeans, land in all pulses and specialty crops totals 11.443 million acres, up from 30% from last year's 8.79 million areas and 50% above the recent five-year average of 7.59 million. Significantly, this smashes through the Industry's five-year old target to plant 10 million acres of pulses by 2025.

Statistics Canada believes the impact of the increase in seeded area was moderated for many crops by this summer's wet growing conditions. With the notable exception of peas, average yields for many special crops are below average because of diseases and water stress. The net result is total output is expected to rise 38% over last year to 8.66 million metric tons (MT). This is 40% above the recent five year average of 6.02 million.

The August production estimate were based on a direct survey of around 13,100 Canadian farms between July 21 and August 4, 2016. Significantly, Statistics Canada said it will release "modelled yield and production estimates for field crops in Canada" on September 20.

The September data will instead be derived from remote sensing, survey and agroclimatic data sources. This release is replacing the September Farm Survey. It needs to be said that introducing a method for estimating crop size worries some market participant because of the risk the approach needs a few more years of fine tuning before it becomes more accurate.