Winter Wheat Crop Jumps 21%

WASHINGTON - Aug 12/16 - SNS -- Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.66 billion bushels, up 2% from the July 1 forecast and up 21% from last year, according to the USDA's latest estimate for the crop.

Based on August 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 54.9 bushels per acre, up 1 bushel from last month and up 12.4 bushels from last year. The area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 30.2 million acres, unchanged from last month but down 6% from last year.

Harvest was nearly complete by the end of July in all Hard Red Winter (HRW) States except Montana, and South Dakota. Harvest in Montana was reported at 54% complete as of July 31, 27 percentage points ahead of normal, while South Dakota reported 87% harvested, 24 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Yield forecasts were unchanged from last month in California, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Texas. However, yield expectations were up from last month in all other HRW States except Montana.

As of July 31, harvest in the Soft Red Winter (SRW) growing area was virtually complete in all States. Yield forecasts were unchanged from last month in Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee. However, yield forecasts are up from the July 1 forecast in Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin but down from last month in Maryland, North Carolina, and Virginia.

Record high yields are forecast in Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Washington, and Wisconsin.

Winter Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2015 and
Forecasted August 1, 2016
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :  Area harvested   :       Yield per acre       :      Production
                :------------------------------------------------------------------------
      State     :         :         :        :       2016        :           :
                :  2015   :  2016   :  2015  :-------------------:   2015    :   2016
                :         :         :        : July 1  :August 1 :           :
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :    1,000 acres       ------- bushels -------     --- 1,000 bushels ---
                :
Arkansas .......:    240       140     56.0     56.0      56.0        13,440       7,840
California .....:    150       175     70.0     70.0      70.0        10,500      12,250
Colorado .......:  2,140     2,120     37.0     45.0      46.0        79,180      97,520
Idaho ..........:    700       720     82.0     86.0      90.0        57,400      64,800
Illinois .......:    520       520     65.0     75.0      75.0        33,800      39,000
Indiana ........:    260       320     68.0     76.0      80.0        17,680      25,600
Kansas .........:  8,700     8,100     37.0     56.0      57.0       321,900     461,700
Kentucky .......:    440       410     73.0     74.0      74.0        32,120      30,340
Maryland .......:    270       260     64.0     67.0      66.0        17,280      17,160
Michigan .......:    475       570     81.0     81.0      83.0        38,475      47,310
                :
Mississippi ....:    120        70     48.0     58.0      58.0         5,760       4,060
Missouri .......:    610       600     53.0     69.0      70.0        32,330      42,000
Montana ........:  2,220     2,200     41.0     45.0      44.0        91,020      96,800
Nebraska .......:  1,210     1,200     38.0     50.0      53.0        45,980      63,600
North Carolina .:    570       420     53.0     48.0      44.0        30,210      18,480
North Dakota ...:    190       130     44.0     54.0      54.0         8,360       7,020
Ohio ...........:    480       550     67.0     76.0      77.0        32,160      42,350
Oklahoma .......:  3,800     3,300     26.0     40.0      40.0        98,800     132,000
Oregon .........:    735       705     47.0     61.0      62.0        34,545      43,710
South Dakota ...:    970     1,070     44.0     54.0      54.0        42,680      57,780
                :
Tennessee ......:    395       390     68.0     71.0      71.0        26,860      27,690
Texas ..........:  3,550     2,800     30.0     34.0      34.0       106,500      95,200
Virginia .......:    210       175     66.0     59.0      55.0        13,860       9,625
Washington .....:  1,590     1,670     56.0     67.0      74.0        89,040     123,580
Wisconsin ......:    210       265     74.0     78.0      80.0        15,540      21,200
                :
Other States 1/ :  1,502     1,296     49.8     52.0      53.1        74,768      68,825
                :
United States ..: 32,257    30,176     42.5     53.9      54.9     1,370,188   1,657,440
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Other States include Alabama, Arizona, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Louisiana,
   Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, South Carolina,
   Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Individual State level estimates will be published
   in the "Small Grains 2016 Summary."