8% Drop in U.S. Spring Wheat

WASHINGTON - Jul 12/16 - SNS -- Production of spring wheat other than durum is forecast at 550 million bushels for the United States, down 8% from last year, according to the latest USDA crop production estimate.

Area harvested for grain is expected to total 11.8 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2016 but down 9% from last year. The United States yield is forecast at 46.5 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushel from the 2015 average yield. Of the total production, 511 million bushels are Hard Red Spring wheat, down 9% from last year.

Crop development has been ahead of normal this spring primarily due to favorable weather conditions. In the six major producing States, 74% of the crop was at or beyond the heading stage as of July 3, six percentage points ahead of last year and 29 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average.

Compared with last year, yield increases are expected in Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, Oregon, and Washington, but a decrease is expected in North Dakota. If realized, the forecasted yield in Minnesota will be a record high. As of July 3, seventy-two% of the other spring wheat crop was rated in good to excellent condition, compared with 70% at the same time last year.

Other Spring Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and
United States: 2015 and
Forecasted July 1, 2016
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :   Area harvested    :   Yield per acre    :     Production
      State     :-----------------------------------------------------------------
                :   2015   :   2016   :   2015   :   2016   :   2015   :   2016
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :  -- 1,000 acres --      --- bushels ---        1,000 bushels
                :
Idaho ..........:     425        440      70.0       75.0      29,750     33,000
Minnesota ......:   1,430      1,350      60.0       63.0      85,800     85,050
Montana ........:   2,440      2,240      31.0       34.0      75,640     76,160
North Dakota ...:   6,650      6,200      48.0       45.0     319,200    279,000
Oregon .........:      93         98      50.0       58.0       4,650      5,684
South Dakota ...:   1,260        950      48.0       48.0      60,480     45,600
Washington .....:     625        540      36.0       46.0      22,500     24,840
                :
Other States 1/ :      18         17      58.9       68.2       1,060      1,160
                :
United States ..:  12,941     11,835      46.3       46.5     599,080    550,494
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Other States include Colorado, Nevada, and Utah. Individual State level
   estimates will be published in the "Small Grains 2016 Summary."