STAT Communications Ag Market News

Winter Wheat Estimate Jumps From June

WASHINGTON - Jul 12/16 - SNS -- Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.63 billion bushels, up 8% from the June 1 forecast and up 19% from 2015, according to the latest USDA crop production estimate.

Based on July 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at a record high 53.9 bushels per acre, up 3.4 bushels from last month and up 11.4 bushels from last year. The area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 30.2 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2016 but down 6% from last year.

Hard Red Winter production, at 1.03 billion bushels, is up 10% from last month. Soft Red Winter, at 370 million bushels, is up 4% from the June forecast. White Winter, at 224 million bushels, is up 4% from last month. Of the White Winter production, 21.2 million bushels are Hard White and 202 million bushels are Soft White.

As of July 3, harvest progress was equal to or ahead of normal in all Hard Red Winter (HRW) States except Colorado and Nebraska. Yield increases from last month in the HRW growing area are expected in Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, but are down in North Dakota and South Dakota. As of July 3, harvest progress in the Soft Red Winter (SRW) growing area was ahead of normal in all major producing States except Michigan.

Record high yields are forecast in Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Wisconsin in 2016.

Winter Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2015 and
Forecasted July 1, 2016
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :  Area harvested   :       Yield per acre       :      Production
                :------------------------------------------------------------------------
      State     :         :         :        :       2016        :           :
                :  2015   :  2016   :  2015  :-------------------:   2015    :   2016
                :         :         :        : June 1  : July 1  :           :
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :    1,000 acres       ------- bushels -------     --- 1,000 bushels ---
                :
Arkansas .......:    240       140     56.0     53.0      56.0        13,440       7,840
California .....:    150       175     70.0     73.0      70.0        10,500      12,250
Colorado .......:  2,140     2,120     37.0     42.0      45.0        79,180      95,400
Idaho ..........:    700       720     82.0     84.0      86.0        57,400      61,920
Illinois .......:    520       520     65.0     68.0      75.0        33,800      39,000
Indiana ........:    260       320     68.0     73.0      76.0        17,680      24,320
Kansas .........:  8,700     8,100     37.0     48.0      56.0       321,900     453,600
Kentucky .......:    440       410     73.0     72.0      74.0        32,120      30,340
Maryland .......:    270       260     64.0     69.0      67.0        17,280      17,420
Michigan .......:    475       570     81.0     82.0      81.0        38,475      46,170
                :
Mississippi ....:    120        70     48.0     58.0      58.0         5,760       4,060
Missouri .......:    610       600     53.0     57.0      69.0        32,330      41,400
Montana ........:  2,220     2,200     41.0     45.0      45.0        91,020      99,000
Nebraska .......:  1,210     1,200     38.0     50.0      50.0        45,980      60,000
North Carolina .:    570       420     53.0     52.0      48.0        30,210      20,160
North Dakota ...:    190       130     44.0     56.0      54.0         8,360       7,020
Ohio ...........:    480       550     67.0     75.0      76.0        32,160      41,800
Oklahoma .......:  3,800     3,300     26.0     35.0      40.0        98,800     132,000
Oregon .........:    735       705     47.0     63.0      61.0        34,545      43,005
South Dakota ...:    970     1,070     44.0     55.0      54.0        42,680      57,780
                :
Tennessee ......:    395       390     68.0     71.0      71.0        26,860      27,690
Texas ..........:  3,550     2,800     30.0     32.0      34.0       106,500      95,200
Virginia .......:    210       175     66.0     63.0      59.0        13,860      10,325
Washington .....:  1,590     1,670     56.0     65.0      67.0        89,040     111,890
Wisconsin ......:    210       265     74.0     76.0      78.0        15,540      20,670
                :
Other States 1/ :  1,502     1,296     49.8     53.5      52.0        74,768      67,404
                :
United States ..: 32,257    30,176     42.5     50.5      53.9     1,370,188   1,627,664
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Other States include Alabama, Arizona, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Louisiana,
   Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, South Carolina,
   Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Individual State level estimates will be published
   in the "Small Grains 2016 Summary."

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