Reliability of Prospective Plantings Planted Acreage Estimates [Based on data for the past twenty years] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference between forecast : : : and final estimate : : :---------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90 percent : Thousand acres : Years Crop : Root mean : confidence :---------------------------------------------------------------- : square error : interval : : : : Below : Above : : : Average : Smallest : Largest : final : final --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ percent ------ --------- 1,000 acres --------- ---- number --- : Barley .......................: 7.1 12.3 234 31 455 5 15 Corn for grain ...............: 1.5 2.6 1,042 32 3,073 7 13 Oats .........................: 7.0 12.1 189 21 660 3 17 Sorghum for grain ............: 9.4 16.2 655 31 2,471 13 7 Soybeans for beans ...........: 2.1 3.6 1,290 25 3,296 10 10 Upland cotton ................: 6.4 11.0 620 6 2,115 11 9 Wheat : Winter wheat ................: 1.8 3.0 592 52 1,290 7 13 Durum wheat .................: 20.5 35.4 241 15 1,028 12 8 Other spring ................: 6.4 11.0 709 12 2,543 10 10 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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