STAT Communications Ag Market News

Reliability of U.S. Seeding Intentions - 2016

Reliability of Prospective Plantings Planted Acreage Estimates
[Based on data for the past twenty years]
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                              :                :                :                  Difference between forecast
                              :                :                :                       and final estimate
                              :                :                :----------------------------------------------------------------
                              :                :   90 percent   :            Thousand acres            :          Years
             Crop             :   Root mean    :   confidence   :----------------------------------------------------------------
                              :  square error  :    interval    :            :            :            :   Below    :   Above
                              :                :                :  Average   :  Smallest  :  Largest   :   final    :   final
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                              :      ------ percent ------          --------- 1,000 acres ---------          ---- number ---
                              :
Barley .......................:       7.1             12.3            234          31           455           5           15
Corn for grain ...............:       1.5              2.6          1,042          32         3,073           7           13
Oats .........................:       7.0             12.1            189          21           660           3           17
Sorghum for grain ............:       9.4             16.2            655          31         2,471          13            7
Soybeans for beans ...........:       2.1              3.6          1,290          25         3,296          10           10
Upland cotton ................:       6.4             11.0            620           6         2,115          11            9
Wheat                         :
 Winter wheat ................:       1.8              3.0            592          52         1,290           7           13
 Durum wheat .................:      20.5             35.4            241          15         1,028          12            8
 Other spring ................:       6.4             11.0            709          12         2,543          10           10
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