STAT Communications Ag Market News

Winter Wheat Estimate Advances

WASHINGTON - Jun 10/15 - SNS -- Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.51 billion bushels, up 2% from the May 1 forecast and up 9% from 2014, according to the USDA's latest crop production estimates for 2015.

Based on June 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 44.5 bushels per acre, up 1 bushel from last month and up 1.9 bushels from last year.

As of May 31, 44% of the winter wheat crop in the 18 major producing States was rated in good to excellent condition, 14 percentage points better than at the same time last year. Nationally, 84% of the winter wheat crop was headed by May 31, seven percentage points ahead of the 5-year average pace.

Hard Red Winter production, at 887 million bushels, is up 4% from last month. Soft Red Winter, at 414 million bushels, is down less than one% from the May forecast. White Winter, at 204 million bushels, is up slightly from last month. Of the White Winter production, 12.4 million bushels are Hard White and 191 million bushels are Soft White.

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the six Hard Red Winter States (Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas) are above last year's level in Colorado, Kansas, Montana, and Oklahoma but below in Nebraska, and Texas. Wet weather across much of the Nation in May has delayed harvest in the Southern Great Plains and Southeast.

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the three Soft Red Winter States (Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio) are above last year's levels in Missouri but below in Illinois and Ohio.

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in Washington are below last year. Forty-one% of the Washington crop was rated in mostly fair to good condition as of May 31.

Winter Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2014 and
Forecasted June 1, 2015
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :  Area harvested   :       Yield per acre       :      Production
                :------------------------------------------------------------------------
      State     :         :         :        :       2015        :           :
                :  2014   :  2015   :  2014  :-------------------:   2014    :   2015
                :         :         :        :  May 1  : June 1  :           :
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :    1,000 acres       ------- bushels -------     --- 1,000 bushels ---
                :
Arkansas .......:    395       340     63.0     61.0      56.0        24,885      19,040
California .....:    180       200     80.0     70.0      65.0        14,400      13,000
Colorado .......:  2,350     2,250     38.0     37.0      38.0        89,300      85,500
Georgia ........:    230       220     49.0     53.0      49.0        11,270      10,780
Idaho ..........:    730       705     80.0     81.0      84.0        58,400      59,220
Illinois .......:    670       570     67.0     67.0      66.0        44,890      37,620
Indiana ........:    335       305     76.0     74.0      74.0        25,460      22,570
Kansas .........:  8,800     8,500     28.0     32.0      37.0       246,400     314,500
Kentucky .......:    510       470     71.0     70.0      73.0        36,210      34,310
Maryland .......:    250       240     70.0     64.0      69.0        17,500      16,560
                :
Michigan .......:    485       510     74.0     76.0      76.0        35,890      38,760
Mississippi ....:    215       155     58.0     57.0      53.0        12,470       8,215
Missouri .......:    740       720     58.0     60.0      60.0        42,920      43,200
Montana ........:  2,240     2,300     41.0     41.0      44.0        91,840     101,200
Nebraska .......:  1,450     1,460     49.0     40.0      42.0        71,050      61,320
New York .......:     95       115     63.0     64.0      60.0         5,985       6,900
North Carolina .:    770       640     58.0     56.0      54.0        44,660      34,560
North Dakota ...:    555       220     49.0     51.0      49.0        27,195      10,780
Ohio ...........:    545       530     74.0     70.0      73.0        40,330      38,690
Oklahoma .......:  2,800     4,100     17.0     29.0      28.0        47,600     114,800
                :
Oregon .........:    740       745     55.0     56.0      56.0        40,700      41,720
Pennsylvania ...:    150       160     65.0     65.0      62.0         9,750       9,920
South Carolina .:    220       170     52.0     52.0      52.0        11,440       8,840
South Dakota ...:  1,080     1,100     55.0     44.0      41.0        59,400      45,100
Tennessee ......:    475       410     66.0     69.0      71.0        31,350      29,110
Texas ..........:  2,250     3,750     30.0     35.0      32.0        67,500     120,000
Virginia .......:    260       225     68.0     71.0      68.0        17,680      15,300
Washington .....:  1,640     1,680     52.0     63.0      62.0        85,280     104,160
Wisconsin ......:    250       230     65.0     71.0      71.0        16,250      16,330
                :
Other States 1/ :    894       818     55.4     52.6      52.6        49,521      43,067
                :
United States ..: 32,304    33,838     42.6     43.5      44.5     1,377,526   1,505,072
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Other States include Alabama, Arizona, Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota,
   Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Individual State
   level estimates will be published in the "Small Grains 2015 Summary."

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