Below Normal Monsoon Forecast

DELHI - Apr 22/15 - SNS -- This year's monsoon could be somewhat below normal, with India's Minister of Science and Technology and Earth Sciences Dr. Harsh Vardhan predicting rainfall amounts could be 93% of the Long Period Average (LPA).

The forecast carries a possible error of plus or minus 5%. If the range in terms of percentage of the Long Period Average LPA is between 90 and 96, it is considered 'Below Normal'.

The department thinks weak El Nino conditions now prevailing over the Pacific and these conditions will likely persist throughout the southwest monsoon season. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over Pacific are known to have a strong influence on the Indian Summer Monsoon.

Monsoon forecasts will be updated in June to include monthly forecasts for July and August for the whole country and separately for India's four geographical regions.

Vardhan added that the chance of a normal monsoon is just 28%. The forecast takes into account several factors:

- The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Gradient between the north Atlantic and north Pacific oceans in December and January;

- The Equatorial South Indian Ocean SST in February;

- East Asia Mean Sea Level Pressure in February and March;

- Northwest Europe Land Surface Air Temperature in January; and

- Equatorial Pacific Warm Water Volume in February and March.

Smaller Pulse Harvest Possible

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