PRETORIA - Aug 29/14 - SNS -- Dry edible bean production in South Africa is not as ample as initially expected, judging from the latest data from the South Africa Grain Information Service (SAGIS).
Forecast output is down sharply from the 89,018 MT previously expected, reflecting lower than forecast average yields in the country's key bean producing states.
Even so, output is expected to jump 36% from last year's 60,200 MT crop and 53% above the recent five-year average harvest of just under 54,000 MT. This is the largest prospective harvest since South Africa grew almost 91,000 MT of beans in 2001.
Though a larger South African crop gives the country the ability to increase exports and reduce imports during the coming season, imports are expected to larger than initially though, as buyers take advantage of lower average international trading levels.
South Africa Field Crop Production Summary (metric tons, hectares) Production (MT) 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Beans 52,255 41,980 47,695 60,200 82,130 Canola 37,620 58,800 79,000 112,000 139,500 Sunflower 490,000 860,000 522,000 557,000 853,325 Soybean 566,000 710,000 650,000 784,500 944,340 Groundnuts 88,000 64,250 59,000 41,500 78,090 Wheat 1,511,340 2,005,000 1,870,000 1,870,000 1,779,950 Barley 200,035 312,000 298,000 267,500 313,080 Corn 12,815,000 10,360,000 12,120,656 11,810,600 14,307,050 Sorghum 196,500 155,000 135,500 147,200 268,920 Area (hectares) 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Beans 44,100 41,900 39,750 43,550 55,820 Canola 34,820 43,510 44,100 72,165 90,000 Sunflower 397,700 642,700 453,350 504,700 598,950 Soybean 311,450 418,000 472,000 516,500 502,900 Groundnuts 57,450 55,150 45,450 46,900 52,125 Wheat 558,100 604,700 511,200 505,500 468,000 Barley 82,670 80,150 84,940 81,320 85,125 Corn 2,742,400 2,372,300 2,699,200 2,781,200 2,688,200 Sorghum 85,675 69,200 48,550 62,620 78,850 Yield (kg/ha) 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Beans 1,185 1,002 1,200 1,382 1,471 Canola 1,080 1,351 1,791 1,552 1,550 Sunflower 1,232 1,338 1,151 1,104 1,425 Soybean 1,817 1,699 1,377 1,519 1,878 Groundnuts 1,532 1,165 1,298 885 1,498 Wheat 2,708 3,316 3,658 3,699 3,803 Barley 2,420 3,893 3,508 3,289 3,678 Corn 4,673 4,367 4,490 4,247 5,322 Sorghum 2,294 2,240 2,791 2,351 3,411 BASED on data from SAGIS.
The most important dry edible bean producing area is Vrystaat/Free State, where production is forecast at 37,700 MT from 26,000 hectares, versus 19,200 MT from 16,000 hectares last year. The second most important bean producing state is Mpumalanga, where output is forecast at 12,250 MT from 8,750 hectares; compared to 11,900 MT from 7,000 hectares last year.
Production in Wes-Kaap/Western Cape is forecast at 450 MT from 300 hectares, compared to 400 MT from 200 hectares last year. Farmers in Noord-Kaap/Northern Cape are expected to produce 2,000 MT of beans from 1,000 hectares, versus 1,700 from 850 last year. Output in Eastern Cape/Oos-Kaap is forecast at 1,155 MT from 770 hectares, compared to 200 MT from 100 hectares last year.
In KwaZulu-Natal, this year's bean harvest is expected to total 6,500 MT from 5,000 hectares, compared to 7,800 MT from 6,000 hectares last year. Production in Limpopo is forecast at 9,625 MT from 5,500 hectares, versus 10,800 MT from 5,400 hectares last year. Output in Gauteng is expected to reach 4,200 MT from 3,000 hectares, compared to 3,400 MT from 2,000 hectares last season. Crops in Noordwes/North West are forecast at 8,250 MT from 5,500 hectares, compared to 4,800 MT from 6,000 last year.
South Africa Edible Bean Supply-Demand Forecast (hectares, metric tons) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Area (hectares) 44,100 41,900 39,750 43,550 55,820 Yield (kg) 1,185 1,002 1,200 1,382 1,471 Production 52,255 41,980 47,695 60,200 82,130 Opening Stocks 5,000 14,000 6,000 N/A N/A Imports 87,541 85,529 79,894 50,600 58,850 Supply 144,796 141,509 133,589 110,800 140,980 Disappearance Exports 3,026 4,602 3,596 3,534 4,900 Domestic Usage 124,817 128,020 126,922 103,366 127,875 Feed/Seed/Waste 2,953 2,887 3,071 3,900 3,205 Total Usage 130,796 135,509 133,589 110,800 135,980 Ending Stocks 14,000 6,000 N/A N/A 5,000 Stocks/Use 10.7 % 4.4 % N/A N/A 3.7 % Forecasts by STAT Market Research based on data from South Africa's Department of Agriculture and FAO
Only active subscribers can read all of this article.
If you are a subscriber, please log into the website.
If you are not a subscriber, click here to subscribe to this edition of the STAT website and to learn more about becoming a subscriber.