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PRETORIA - Aug 29/14 - SNS -- Dry edible bean production in South Africa is not as ample as initially expected, judging from the latest data from the South Africa Grain Information Service (SAGIS).

Forecast output is down sharply from the 89,018 MT previously expected, reflecting lower than forecast average yields in the country's key bean producing states.

Even so, output is expected to jump 36% from last year's 60,200 MT crop and 53% above the recent five-year average harvest of just under 54,000 MT. This is the largest prospective harvest since South Africa grew almost 91,000 MT of beans in 2001.

Though a larger South African crop gives the country the ability to increase exports and reduce imports during the coming season, imports are expected to larger than initially though, as buyers take advantage of lower average international trading levels.

               South Africa Field Crop Production Summary
                       (metric tons, hectares)
Production (MT)       2010-11    2011-12    2012-13    2013-14    2014-15
Beans                  52,255     41,980     47,695     60,200     82,130
Canola                 37,620     58,800     79,000    112,000    139,500
Sunflower             490,000    860,000    522,000    557,000    853,325
Soybean               566,000    710,000    650,000    784,500    944,340
Groundnuts             88,000     64,250     59,000     41,500     78,090
Wheat               1,511,340  2,005,000  1,870,000  1,870,000  1,779,950
Barley                200,035    312,000    298,000    267,500    313,080
Corn               12,815,000 10,360,000 12,120,656 11,810,600 14,307,050
Sorghum               196,500    155,000    135,500    147,200    268,920
Area (hectares)       2010-11    2011-12    2012-13    2013-14    2014-15
Beans                  44,100     41,900     39,750     43,550     55,820
Canola                 34,820     43,510     44,100     72,165     90,000
Sunflower             397,700    642,700    453,350    504,700    598,950
Soybean               311,450    418,000    472,000    516,500    502,900
Groundnuts             57,450     55,150     45,450     46,900     52,125
Wheat                 558,100    604,700    511,200    505,500    468,000
Barley                 82,670     80,150     84,940     81,320     85,125
Corn                2,742,400  2,372,300  2,699,200  2,781,200  2,688,200
Sorghum                85,675     69,200     48,550     62,620     78,850
Yield (kg/ha)         2010-11    2011-12    2012-13    2013-14    2014-15
Beans                   1,185      1,002      1,200      1,382      1,471
Canola                  1,080      1,351      1,791      1,552      1,550
Sunflower               1,232      1,338      1,151      1,104      1,425
Soybean                 1,817      1,699      1,377      1,519      1,878
Groundnuts              1,532      1,165      1,298        885      1,498
Wheat                   2,708      3,316      3,658      3,699      3,803
Barley                  2,420      3,893      3,508      3,289      3,678
Corn                    4,673      4,367      4,490      4,247      5,322
Sorghum                 2,294      2,240      2,791      2,351      3,411
BASED on data from SAGIS.

The most important dry edible bean producing area is Vrystaat/Free State, where production is forecast at 37,700 MT from 26,000 hectares, versus 19,200 MT from 16,000 hectares last year. The second most important bean producing state is Mpumalanga, where output is forecast at 12,250 MT from 8,750 hectares; compared to 11,900 MT from 7,000 hectares last year.

Production in Wes-Kaap/Western Cape is forecast at 450 MT from 300 hectares, compared to 400 MT from 200 hectares last year. Farmers in Noord-Kaap/Northern Cape are expected to produce 2,000 MT of beans from 1,000 hectares, versus 1,700 from 850 last year. Output in Eastern Cape/Oos-Kaap is forecast at 1,155 MT from 770 hectares, compared to 200 MT from 100 hectares last year.

In KwaZulu-Natal, this year's bean harvest is expected to total 6,500 MT from 5,000 hectares, compared to 7,800 MT from 6,000 hectares last year. Production in Limpopo is forecast at 9,625 MT from 5,500 hectares, versus 10,800 MT from 5,400 hectares last year. Output in Gauteng is expected to reach 4,200 MT from 3,000 hectares, compared to 3,400 MT from 2,000 hectares last season. Crops in Noordwes/North West are forecast at 8,250 MT from 5,500 hectares, compared to 4,800 MT from 6,000 last year.

               South Africa Edible Bean Supply-Demand Forecast
                     (hectares, metric tons)
                         2010        2011        2012        2013        2014
Area (hectares)        44,100      41,900      39,750      43,550      55,820
Yield (kg)              1,185       1,002       1,200       1,382       1,471
Production             52,255      41,980      47,695      60,200      82,130
Opening Stocks          5,000      14,000       6,000         N/A         N/A
Imports                87,541      85,529      79,894      50,600      58,850
Supply                144,796     141,509     133,589     110,800     140,980
Disappearance
Exports                 3,026       4,602       3,596       3,534       4,900
Domestic Usage        124,817     128,020     126,922     103,366     127,875
Feed/Seed/Waste         2,953       2,887       3,071       3,900       3,205
Total Usage           130,796     135,509     133,589     110,800     135,980
Ending Stocks          14,000       6,000         N/A         N/A       5,000
Stocks/Use             10.7 %       4.4 %         N/A         N/A       3.7 %
Forecasts by STAT Market Research based on data from South Africa's Department of Agriculture and FAO

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