SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Apr 21/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
[cid:image002.png@01CF4CBF.8F6C7CF0]
Market Outlook as of 8:35 AM CDT:
Wheat is 10-15 lower, rainfall to some dry areas of US winter wheat, technical selling, Ukraine attempts peaceful solution (Mpls July last trade 7.19 ½, KC July 7.42)
Soybeans are down 14-17 cents, favorable planting weather works to pull prices lower across the board (July last trade 14.84 ¼)
Corn is 3-5 lower, good planting progress expected over the week, forecasts look good until the end of this week (July last trade 4.96 ½)
Sunflowers are down 5-15 cents, bean oil falls with soybean, soybean meal prices
Canola is 15-20 cents lower, selling pressure with lower soybean complex
The US dollar is higher this morning and crude prices are barely holding onto gains. Grain futures are sharply lower this morning as technical selling combined with mostly favorable weather and weather forecasts have futures tumbling lower. The situation in Ukraine is mixed, there was some weekend violence but there are efforts going to try and resolve this whole ordeal diplomatically. The USDA will release its weekly progress report this afternoon, decent progress is expected.
The wheat market is still working to assess freeze damage to the US hard red winter wheat crop. Rainfall hit some areas of the drought stricken US hard red winter wheat crop but coverage was spotty. Light amounts of precip are expected over the next few days. Despite the rains, a further decline in US hard red winter wheat crop conditions is expected. Technical selling is ignoring the state of the US winter wheat crop and prices are being pushed lower.
Short old crop stocks are working against Asian demand concerns and US planting optimism to decide soybean futures price direction this morning. Long term weather forecasts are looking pretty good for the planting season in major soybean growing areas - it's early for soybeans yet but that is what the market is focused on. There is not any fresh news on Chinese soybean payment defaults. Canola and bean oil prices are lower which means it will probably be a lower day in general for the oilseeds today.
Eastern corn belt farmers reportedly made good planting progress over the weekend, which is good because rainfall and cooler temperatures are in the forecast for later this week which could bring fresh worries about planting delays. The USDA is expected to report US planting progress at about six percent complete in this afternoon's weekly report. There is no new demand news to talk about and the market is focused on reports that Chinese corn imports are down nearly 80% from where they were this year, due in part to rejections of many US shipments.
It looks like it's going to be an ugly day for the grain futures today with prices having little reason to trade higher, thus being pushed lower by strong selling pressure.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
[image003.jpg]
1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from the author(s) that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its staff or its management.
Only active subscribers can read all of this article.
If you are a subscriber, please log into the website.
If you are not a subscriber, click here to subscribe to this edition of the STAT website and to learn more about becoming a subscriber.
