SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Apr 15/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:35 AM CDT:
Wheat is 3-5 lower, market cannot maintain strength found yesterday, market relaxes after strong gains (Mpls May last trade 7.14, KC May 7.36)
Soybeans are mixed, old crop up 3-6, new crop down 1-3, old crop stocks versus new crop plantings have market confused (July last trade 14.69)
Corn is 3-5 lower, ideas that planting concerns may be overdone with progress better than last year and forecasts good (July last trade 5.04 ¼)
Sunflowers are down 0-5 cents, bean oil struggles with crude, new crop beans this morning
Canola is up 10-15 cents, futures slightly higher finding some buying interest again today
Things between Russia and Ukraine continue to heat up. There are a lot of terms being thrown around, anticipating what may occur in Ukraine. There is chatter of civil war, what impact economic sanctions could have on exports from Russia and Ukraine and overall political uncertainty. Ukraine is now planning to use military force to evacuate Russian occupants from government buildings in eastern parts of the country. The US dollar is slightly higher this morning and crude prices are down about 45 cents/barrel.
There is not a lot of fresh news for the wheat markets this morning and after closing off of highs yesterday prices are relaxing this morning. The USDA pegged US hard red winter wheat crop conditions at 34% good to excellent which is a 1% decline from last week's report. Poor to very poor ratings increased by 3% to 32% poor/very poor. This is not the direction we want to see ratings go. Prices do not seem to be reacting to the ratings drop, though, as wheat futures are slightly lower this morning. Spring wheat planting progress is reportedly six percent done in the US as Idaho and Washington have made a lot of progress on their crop getting in the ground.
Soybeans are mixed with old crop surging higher and new crop trading both sides of unchanged. Tight US supplies are spurring further buying interest in old crop futures. Brazil is expected to see an increase in production but Argentina is expecting a decline due to recent rainfall. US planting weather is expected to be pretty favorable for corn as we move forward which may mean less soybean acres if corn planting moves along easily and rapidly. The USDA estimated US corn planting at 3% complete which was in line with estimates, below the average of 6% complete at this time but ahead of last year's pace of 2% complete. Warmer, drier weather is in the forecast for US corn and soybean growing areas so corn planting will likely continue at a good pace. The thought that planting progress will keep on chugging along has many wondering if perhaps concerns about the crop not getting in are overdone..so futures are falling off a little bit.
There is not a lot of news for the grain markets to trade off of. As always at this time of year, keep an eye on weather forecasts for major crop growing areas. Ukrainian uncertainty will also keep these markets on edge and provide a level of unpredictability as we move forward.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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