SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Apr 14/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:45 AM CDT:
Wheat is 12-18 higher, Ukrainian unrest and US weather worries push wheat sharply higher (Mpls May last trade 7.15, KC May 7.36)
Soybeans are up 0-5 cents, old crop up on tight stocks, new crop barely higher (July last trade 14.52 ½)
Corn is 0-2 lower, finding some support from wheat prices but weather favorable in Iowa (July last trade 5.04 ¾)
Sunflowers are unchanged, soybean oil is slightly higher but not enough to do much to sunflower prices
Canola is unchanged, futures are a little higher this morning as well, if soybeans stay strong canola may find some support
Wheat futures are shooting higher this morning as the markets react to weekend developments in the Black Sea Region and US weather. Russia has occupied buildings in eastern Ukraine, when Ukraine attempted to remove the occupants they were fired upon and Ukraine has said force may be used to get its buildings back. The US dollar is higher as investors run to push their money into something "safe". Crude prices are up about a dime per barrel at the moment.
US weather is doing all the wrong things for the hard red winter wheat belt right now. Rains are falling to spots that don't need it as badly as others and temperatures have dropped to as low as 20 degrees in some areas. As a result, wheat prices are showing double digit gains but they are well off their overnight highs. Some dry areas reportedly received some light snow but it does not seem to be enough to ease any sort of dryness concerns. India's harvest has begun and the market is chattering about better than expected yield and quality.
South American harvest is chugging along and the market is expecting record production, though it may be off from what current estimates are. Tight old supplies help to lift the nearby futures contracts but new crop gains are only a penny or so. Chinese demand uncertainty could limit gains as the fact that China's been defaulting on payment of shipments is not good. There is little fresh news for soybean futures today and rising wheat prices could be enough to help support prices.
Heavy rains fell in areas of the Midwest which could further delay planting efforts. However, the USDA is expected to peg progress at 2-4% complete which would be on pace or slightly ahead of where we were at this time last year. Prices this morning may be finding some strength from rising wheat markets as well as weather worries. However, Iowa is getting some rain which is delaying fieldwork but brings relief to dry soil. Chinese rejections of US shipments remain top market news and will keep markets on the defensive.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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