CHICAGO - Jul 28/10 - SNS -- Following is the morning soybean futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group.
Soybeans closed slightly higher on Friday after a day with a tight trading range. The Nov contract settled at 981 ½ up 2 cents on the day. The new crop contract opened slightly higher and made the lows of the day around 9:45am. Trade turned around after the low and climbed steadily until around 11:00am and put in the highs of the day. Trade settled after this and settled around the middle of the 11 cent range. The August contract settled at 1017 up 1 with the September contract settling at 991 up ½. The back and forth trade of the week left the Nov contract down 3 ½. Volume for the day was 82,453 for soybeans, 48,521 for soymeal, and 72,062 for soyoil. Overnight trading closed down 7 cents. The opening call is for the market to open in line with the over night. After a weekend of heavy rains and heat across the Midwest, beans will be trading lower. Beans still have about a month of trade where weather can affect the crop before it is made. There is a very difficult story developing in determining how much of the crop is benefiting from rains and how much is being hurt. The summer rains are always beneficial to more than that that gets damaged. But this is hard to combat with so many reports of flooded out crops. Reports of nitrogen leaching and potential loss of yields have been widespread and will grow this week. Outside markets: USD$ -0.16, Dow futures -17, Gold -0.8, and crude -0.27. Outside markets didnt seem to have much effect on trade last week, but well see if that trend continues this week. The Commitment of Traders report as of July 20th. shows Index Funds positions as: Corn Long 416,700 up 17,048, Soybeans Long 152,857 up 1,849, Wheat Long 196,271 off 430, Meal Long 8,400 up 498, Oil Long 98,207 off 339. Globex Overnight Contract Last Net Change High Low Volume ZSQ10 1010^0-7^0 1015^4 1007^6 1044 ZSU10 984^4 -6^4 990^4 981^2 474 ZSX10 974^2 -7^2 981^6 972^0 5667 ZSF11 982^0 -7^6 990^4 980^6 611 ZSH11 986^2 -6^6 993^2 986^2 117 ZMQ10 296.9 -3.0 299.6 295.7 989 ZMU10 287.6 -2.8 290.2 286.6 510 ZMV10 280.0 -3.8 283.5 280.0 212 ZLQ10 38.90 -0.17 39.19 38.81 5623 ZLU10 39.07 -0.07 39.28 39.01 4222 ZLV10 39.23 -0.11 39.44 39.18 1048 Early Opening Calls: off 5-7 cents Top News -- Many analysts expect Monday's USDA crop progress report to show little change in Corn & Soybean conditions this week. Last week Corn in the good to excellent was 73%, while Soy in that category was 65% good to excellent -- Malaysian palm oil exports during the July 1-25 period were 1.103 mln mt, down 0.9% from the same number of days in the prior month, acc. to SGS data -- Malaysian palm oil exports during the July 1-25 period were 1.074 mln mt, down 4% from the same number of days in the prior month, acc. to Intertek data -- Indonesia lowered the base crude palm oil price to $725/mt and lowered their export tax to 3% in August from 4.5% -- Indonesia Palm Oil Assoc data suggest exports of crude palm oil during June rose by 9% to 1.14 mln mt shipped abroad. -- Pending Tender: Israeli group on Monday announced a tender for 14,000 mt of US or Latam Soymeal, bid deadline is Wednesday, July 21st -- Pending Tender: July 21 is bid deadline for India RBD palm olein tender, they're seeking 8,500 mt for delivery in the Aug-Sep period -- Dalian May soybean futures were 5 yuan better at 3,970 yuan/mt. -- Dalian May soymeal futures were 11 yuan better at 2,919 yuan/mt; Jan soyoil were 34 yuan better at 7,658 yuan/mt. -- Dalian Jan palm oil futures were 40 yuan better at 6,666 yuan/mt. -- Liffe Aug rapeseed futures were off -3.50 euro at 358.50 euros/mt. -- Globex Soybean Vol. 71,751; Pit Vol. 8,398; Open Interest Change: - 5,698 -- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Above Normal Temps. Normal to Above Precip. -- Outside markets: Energy Complex -0.74 at $78.24; Gold & Silver: +0.5 at $1190.2 & +0.024 at $18.125; US $ -0.159 at $82.470 Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans steady. July +80 to +90, FH Aug. +70 to +?? , Aug. +70 to +85, Sept. +80 to +90, Oct. +72 to +76, Nov. +76 to +80, Dec. +72 to +75, Jan. +73 to +75 To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me directly Nathan T. Smith III Linn Group nsmith@linngroup.com toll free: (877) 787-6278 local: (312) 896-2090 fax: (312) 896-2050 www.linngroup.com/
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