CHICAGO - Jul 21/10 - SNS -- Following is the currency futures comment from PFGBEST Research.
By Paul Kavanaugh
Senior Analyst and Broker
1-800-439-6033
pkavanaugh@pfgbest.com
CFTC data released Friday July 16th showed IMM currency speculators reversed to net short the US dollar after decreasing their bets long in the last four COT reports. According to Reuters News, the value of the US dollar position declined by 176% from a long position with an aggregate value of $3.82 to a short position of $5.02 billion. The Cash US dollar index at its peak of 88.70 on June 7th was up over 19% since the sovereign debt concerns began to enter the global currency markets in late November 2009. Since then we have seen a 6.68% decline in the index as the outlook for GDP growth has weakened.
The recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in speculative positions in the currencies from the prior week including the following; a 24.9% increase from 37,926 to 47,359 contracts net long the Japanese Yen (4th week of consecutive significant increases); a 30.4% decrease from 38,909 to 27,050 in contracts net short the Euro following last week's 47.1% decrease from 73,670 to 38,909 contracts; an 8.9% decrease from 38,077 to 34,671 in contracts net short the Pound Sterling; a huge 295.7% reversal from net short 7,455 to 14,590 contracts net long in the Swiss Franc; and a very significant 172.2% increase from 8,094 to 22,038 contracts net long the Canadian dollar as well as a 224% increase from 7,246 to 23,480 contracts net long the Australian dollar.
The significance of the return to large speculators net short position to the US dollar is indicates a return of the Risk Appetite of global investors and is further evidenced by the return in the net long speculative positions in commodity currencies including the Canadian and Australian dollars.
At extreme levels like this, we often see high volatility in the currency markets so exercise caution in your trading and contact the PFGBEST Research Division for specific recommendations and commentary!
Take advantage of my mid-session support and resistance volatility levels via E-mail daily! To get your free trial, send an email with 'Mid-Session ##035;s' in the subject line to pkavanaugh@pfgbest.com or call 1-888-439-6033 !!!
Commitments of Traders data released Friday July 16, 2010
JAPANESE YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)
7/13/10 week 7/06/10 week
Long 63,205 62,476
Short 15,846 24,550
Net 47,359 37,926
EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)
7/13/10 week 7/06/10 week
Long 56,187 56,316
Short 83,237 95,225
Net -27,050 -38,909
POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,500 pounds sterling)
7/13/10 week 7/06/10 week
Long 15,501 18,442
Short 50,172 56,519
Net -34,671 -38,077
SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)
7/13/10 week 7/06/10 week
Long 18,237 7,627
Short 3,647 15,082
Net 14,590 -7,455
CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)
7/13/10 week 7/06/10 week
Long 27,952 28,549
Short 5,914 20,455
Net 22,038 8,094
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)
7/13/10 week 7/06/10 week
Long 35,209 25,885
Short 11,729 18,639
Net 23,480 7,246
(Source: Reuters)
Take advantage of my mid-session support and resistance volatility levels via E-mail daily! To get your free trial, send an email with 'Mid-Session ##035;s' in the subject line to pkavanaugh@pfgbest.com or call 1-888-439-6033 !!!
Paul Kavanaugh
Senior Analyst and Broker
PFG Research Team
1-888-439-6033
PFGBEST Research Team
Phone: 800-361-6855 or 319-553-2181
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