China Expects Record Cotton Harvest

BEIJING - May 13/04 - SNS -- A 12.5% increase in cotton area in China is expected to push production to a record 6.2 million metric tons (MT) this year, but the country should remain an important destination for U.S. cotton.

Commenting on the crop situation, the U.S. agricultural attache here said however imports may not surpass 1.1 million MT, down 39% from the 1.83 million MT expected to be imported this season; but well above the 686,758 MT imported in 2002-03. The United States is expected to remain the dominant supplier.

Strong demand by the country's textile industry will ensure stocks remain tight. "The State Reserve stocks are estimated to be practically nothing. If Reserve officials decide to replenish their stocks, imports may exceed" current forecasts for the 2004-05 season, notes the U.S. agricultural attache.

Transgenic Bt cotton planting continued to take more ground in 2003 and is expected to expand further in 2004. However, it remains difficult to predict the real area share of Bt varieties. Although only officially approved for planting in four provinces, in fact, it is grown much more widely. Consequently, estimates for BT cotton coverage vary from as low as 22.4% to over 70%.

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