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Cotton Price Reactions to USDA Reports
WASHINGTON - Mar 11/04 - SNS -- Upland cotton markets are more likely to react negatively to USDA crop production and stocks in all positions reports, according to a USDA analysis of reports released between the mid-1980's and last year.
The USDA based its analysis on prices published for the day before each report and for the day and week after each report. The price reaction after the "Crop Production" reports is indicated by the difference between the price for the day before each report and the day or week after each report.
The USDA found cotton was never left unchanged by the crop production estimates and there was a greater tendency for markets to fall than rise after release of the data. However, when markets did rise, they were more likely to move further than when they declined.
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